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A new government in Goa

The recent elections may not quite help pull Goa out of the spell of political instability. But for now, the Congress and its ally, the Nationalist Congress Party, who have won 19 seats — two short of a majority — in the 40-member Assembly, are comfortably placed to form the next government. Chief Minister Pratapsingh Rane, especially, is in an enviable position: his son Vishwajeet is one of the two Independents whose support the Congress needs. The two-member Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party, which has a Minister in the outgoing government, is also likely to support Mr. Rane, despite having contested the elections independently. Mr. Rane, known for his good equations with the NCP strongman Sharad Pawar, would no doubt leverage these factors for cementing his support base within his own party. The Congress-NCP combination, which is also assured of the support of the other Independent, Anil Salgaoncar, is thus not likely to encounter difficulties in forming the next government. However, the ease with which the initial hurdles in government formation are overcome can be no guarantee to political stability in India's smallest State. Governments have come and governments have gone in quick succession, and the composition of the new House promises no change in the situation.

Desertions and splits are characteristic features of Goan parties, including the two national parties, the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party. Changes made in 2003 to the anti-defection law, which invalidated splits and mandated two-thirds support for any dissident group to merge with another party, have had little effect on toppling games in Goa. As was evident in 2005, members were quite willing to resign from the Assembly and face a by-election rather than continue to support a government they did not like. Those denied a berth in the ministry are easy prey for those in the opposition seeking to bring down the government. The BJP, with 14 members in the Assembly, cannot be faulted if it nurses hopes of returning to power without having to face another election. Although regional parties such as the MGP have suffered erosion of support in recent years, the polity remains fragmented in Goa. This is because political leaders there, as is typical of any small State, have built constituencies independent of their party, and they desert the party at the slightest provocation or the first perceived slight. Through another term, Mr. Rane will need all his political acumen and managerial skills to retain the support of not only his allies but also his own party men.

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