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A general battles to hold his position

Nirupama Subramanian

The anti-government movement in Pakistan appears unstoppable but a lot will depend on the Supreme Court's decision on Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhary's petition.

AS THE agitation in Pakistan over the sacking of a Chief Justice, now a huge anti-government storm, clocks three months on June 9, it appears from the government's reflex strong-arm actions that an embattled President Pervez Musharraf thinks he can still bash through and come out on top. On the other hand, an increasingly self-confident movement, spearheaded by an accidental leader, believes it is at the door of a momentous opportunity to overturn a 50-year-old legacy of direct or indirect military rule. In between is a lobby that is even now urging President Musharraf to cut his losses and take the path of reconciliation.

Not surprisingly, the push for reconciliation is strongest from within the ruling Pakistan Muslim League, which provides President Musharraf his political support and derives its power from him, and which stands to lose the most with elections due later this year. "The party believes this is a self-inflicted wound and that it should be wrapped up as quickly as possible," a senior party leader said.

Some PML leaders are openly counselling President Musharraf to call parliamentary elections as early as possible. They are urging him to cancel his plan to seek re-election in September from the outgoing electoral college — the term of the National and Provincial Assemblies that elect the President ends in the first week of November — and to give up the uniform.

Kabir Wasti, a PML vice-president, even called a press conference to declare that General Musharraf should step down as army chief, announce an all-party conference to reconcile political groupings in government and opposition, and recall Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif from exile. Thereafter, a consensual "impartial interim set-up" would organise free and fair elections, supervised by an independent chief election commissioner.

Many in the PML believe that if President Musharraf gives up his plan to contest elections from the outgoing Assemblies, he can still do a deal with the Pakistan People's Party for his re-election — minus the uniform — by the new Assemblies.

Sections of Pakistan's civil society that believe President Musharraf is still the best bet for a transition to full-fledged democracy also support this line of action. They fear that if the agitation reaches the tipping point, Pakistan could face the prospect of another military coup by a new general, or an Islamist takeover. Friday Times, a leading weekly newspaper, painted a dire picture of chaos and instability if General Musharraf were to be ousted by a popular movement and the country transited immediately into "undiluted democracy."

The newspaper predicted the peace process with India would be abandoned, and so would the war against terror, both under political pressure from Islamists. The army and intelligence agencies would "retreat into their old mould of pulling strings from behind the scenes to discredit politicians and policies" and the ultimate victors would be the "forces of extremism, violence and separatism." This section of civil society is still urging a Musharraf-Benazir deal as the best option for a moderate Pakistan, which also appears to be the Bush administration's view.

At the moment though, President Musharraf appears to be listening more to an influential section of the establishment that believes a return to the pre-March 9 status quo is still possible. In the last few weeks, the President has made several statements on the uniform issue that have suggested confrontation rather than reconciliation. He has said the Constitution permits him to keep his uniform until December 2007, and that he will "cross the bridge [of stepping down as army chief] when it comes." He has called the uniform his "second skin." He has reasserted a plan for his re-election by the outgoing Assemblies, and said he may even use "extra-constitutional" measures to keep going in office. Alongside has come a tough crackdown on the media, especially television, and a stern warning that no one must "defame" the Pakistan Army. Inspired reports in sections of the press are darkly alleging an "Indian hand" in the "plot to malign state institutions, including the army" riding on the judicial crisis. Reverting to his soldier instincts, Gen. Musharraf also sought and received an endorsement of his policies, and his dual role as President and army chief, from his corps commanders.

But far from containing the crisis, the crackdown has served to expose the regime's weakening grip, and helped intensify the agitation. The movement has now graduated from "Go Musharraf Go" to "Go Fauj (army) Go." It believes President Musharraf's time is up, and that the moment is ripe to make the transition to full democracy, get rid of the army's shadow on politics and governance, and reclaim civilian institutions from the military. Spearheaded by lawyers, the movement now includes large chunks of civil society and opposition parties but is much bigger than any single politician, party or group. The crackdown on the media has opened up another front, bringing journalists out on the streets in a broad front with lawyers and political parties.

For Ms. Bhutto to do a deal with the regime now appears difficult if not impossible. The movement has gone from strength to strength without any direction from either the PPP leader, who lays claim to the title of most popular democratic leader in Pakistan, or Mr. Sharif. Some anticipate that it could even leave these two leaders behind as the second and third-rung leaders of their parties rally behind the Chief Justice.

The most visible faces of the movement — Iftikhar Chaudhary, and his lawyer-in-chief Aitzaz Ahsan, the Cambridge-educated barrister who is also a parliamentarian of the Pakistan People's Party — have kept the ball rolling with some astute help from the Supreme Court Bar Association. They have used a time-tested technique of democratic politics — hit the road. Mr. Chaudhary is visiting one city after another in Pakistan to address lawyers' conventions.

Mr. Ahsan said the struggle was not about the removal of one man; rather it was an opportunity to dislodge the army's grip over the country's institutions. It would mean no less than discarding the "national security state" model handed down to generations of Pakistanis by the military to perpetuate its primacy, the most important element of which is India as the "enemy" neighbour rather than just the "unfriendly" neighbour, he said.

Other opposition leaders also agree the ongoing agitation is a movement against the military's role in politics and governance, rather than just anti-Musharraf. "Musharraf has become unacceptable, and with him the military's domination or manipulation of politics because that is what Musharraf symbolises. People are now demanding a demilitarised political system," said Ahsan Iqbal, Information Secretary of the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz).

According to Mr. Iqbal, a qualified mechanical engineer with a Wharton MBA, the protests must progress towards forcing Gen. Musharraf out of power. The political leadership of the country will return from exile. A caretaker national government will then hold free and fair elections supervised by an independent election commissioner. The new democratic government will oversee the restoration of full-fledged democracy. The army goes back to its professional duties.

"This is the moment, we can win this battle," he said, adding that if President Musharraf attempted re-election, "there will be a big explosion of protest." Nor, according to him, would people accept an imposition of martial law. "The military has exhausted its political capital, and it knows this," Mr. Iqbal said.

But hobbled by the absence of their top leadership, on the one hand, and by the continuing suspicion that the PPP may jump ship at any moment to join hands with the regime, the opposition parties are still unable to form the "grand coalition" seen as essential to turn the agitation into a mass uprising for systemic change. For its part, the PPP says its reluctance for a coalition that includes all opposition parties stems from its ideological difference with the right-wing religious coalition, Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal, which has had a substantial role in the protests. A senior leader of the ruling party said the opposition's "incompetence" still gave the PML hope that this crisis may blow over without any serious consequences.

In all this, one important factor is still in suspense. Many believe that the Supreme Court's decision on Mr. Chaudhary's petition challenging the reference against him will play a vital role in setting the direction for this crisis. If the verdict goes against the government, President Musharraf may have no choice but to call an early parliamentary election. That could be the beginning of the end for him. But if the full court delivers a pro-government verdict, the thinking in the ruling PML is that the agitation will fizzle out. But going by the prevalent mood in Pakistan, this could be an optimistic reading. Partly helped by the government's own actions, the movement now seems to have its own unstoppable dynamic.

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