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Little to celebrate at the birth of `Hamastan'

Ian Black

The blow to the Palestinians is especially grave because for decades it was thought they would never descend to civil strife.

HAMAS FLAGS flying in triumph over the Gaza Strip represent a historic blow to Palestinian national unity as well as an end to already slim hopes for any sort of meaningful peace process with Israel. Barring some dramatic reversal after the latest fighting — such as the improbable survival of the Hamas-Fatah coalition government — 1.4 million Palestinians in what is now being dubbed "Hamastan" will not only be physically cut off from their compatriots in the West Bank but will also be ruled by a movement that advocates armed resistance and is boycotted by Israel and the international community.

Neither side will be in a position to conduct negotiations with Israel or anyone else, killing off any hopes of urgently needed momentum to the current stalemate. "It leaves the Palestinians fragmented and very weak," said a senior Arab diplomat. Iran and Syria, which support Hamas, have boosted their influence.

Analysts say that even if Hamas controls security, it has nothing else to offer. Since the Islamist movement is shunned by Israel, it is unclear how contacts will be maintained over controlling border crossings and fuel and power supplies.

"The government will remain, but it does not govern. It will be there, but is incapable of doing its job," predicted Bir Zeit University's Ali al-Jarbawi. "The situation will be completely paralysed."

Palestinians see the Gaza crisis as the disastrous outcome of years of failure: of the Oslo peace process, Hamas' electoral win, and the international sanctions imposed as a result. "If you have two brothers put into a cage and deprive them of basic essential needs for life, they will fight," said Palestinian Foreign Minister Ziad Abu Amr. Many say the Palestinian Authority is already effectively dead.

The blow to the Palestinians is especially grave because for decades it was an article of faith that they would never descend to civil strife. The strength of Yasser Arafat's Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) was having established itself as "the sole legitimate representative of the Palestinian people" to underline that it was not the creature of Arab states.

Israeli view

Israelis are divided between those who see a vindication of Ariel Sharon's unilateral disengagement from the Gaza Strip in the summer of 2005 and those who see a need for a Palestinian negotiating partner. Hamas' victory will destroy the ability of Palestinian President and Fatah leader Mahmoud Abbas to deliver on any agreements. "We bet on the Fatah horse — there weren't any others — and that horse has lost," said one Israeli diplomat. Fatah supporters complain that Israel never gave Mr. Abbas the support he needed.

Watching from the sidelines, Israel now has few options left. Ehud Olmert's weak government is unlikely to send its forces permanently back to Gaza, though it may be the Hamas strategy to try to make that happen as it smuggles weapons under the border from Egypt. Hamas is seen in Jerusalem as the instrument of Israel's arch-enemy, Iran, which along with Syria helped the Lebanese Shia movement, Hizbollah, in its war with Israel last year. "This situation isn't good for Israel. It's actually dreadful," said veteran Yediot Aharonot analyst Roni Shaked. "The Palestinians are destroying their future with their own hands."

Hamas has crushed the hopes of the Bush administration that Fatah would be able to re-establish security control over Gaza, a long-standing Israeli condition for resuming negotiations. Washington had just launched a controversial $60-million programme to bolster Mr. Abbas' presidential guard and Israel had quietly allowed Arab states to send in arms and ammunition.

The pro-western Arab states — Jordan, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia — are devastated by the Hamas victory, which fuels their own fears of domestic Islamist opposition and strong dislike of Iran's role in Iraq and Lebanon.

— © Guardian Newspapers Limited 2007

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