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When the numbers don’t add up

The contours of a contest for the Presidency have begun to take shape with the National Democratic Alliance formally announcing its decision to support Vice President Bhairon Singh Shekhawat as an independent candidate. The seven regional parties that constitute the United National Progressive Alliance have lent an unexpected twist to the election by saying they favour a second term for President A.P.J. Abdul Kalam. This declaration of support is, to say the very least, ve ry intriguing; in the absence of a complete consensus, Mr. Kalam, by all accounts, is not interested in a second term. Given this, the UNPA’s support for a non-starter seems very much like a political stratagem — a possible preparatory move for justifying its eventual decision to back Mr. Shekhawat. However, the recently formed alliance does not have the required strength to tilt the election in Mr. Shekhawat’s favour. Even in a straight contest, the numbers are stacked very much in favour of the candidate nominated by the United Progressive Alliance and the Left parties, Ms. Pratibha Patil. This leads directly to a question that is extremely relevant to this Presidential election. Why does Mr. Shekhawat — a senior politician who has earned respect across the political spectrum for the non-partisan manner in which he presided over the Rajya Sabha — want to plunge into an election that will foster political acrimony? Moreover, one that he cannot fairly win?

Mr. Shekhawat, after all, is not throwing his hat in the ring to make a political point — as Lakshmi Sahgal and those who supported her wanted to in the last Presidential election. If his “victory is definite”, as the NDA resolution implausibly boasted, such a ‘certainty’ can only come about only through massive cross-voting. The tacit message that Mr. Shekhawat’s candidature sends out is not a happy one; it implies that those willing to abandon party loyalties can determine the outcome. This is the first time that regional parties and smaller political formations have been able to influence the race to Rashtrapati Bhavan so decisively. If the Left parties succeeded in persuading the Congress against nominating a couple of candidates it was keen on, the numbers provided by the regional parties such as the Bahujan Samaj Party and the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam will have a decisive impact on the final outcome. The influence wielded by these formations is a result of the fact that the total value of the Congress and the BJP votes together is under 50 per cent of the electoral college. There have been Presidential contests before — some real, some token. But none reflected the era of coalition politics as clearly as this year’s.

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