The Hindu : National : Ageing population on the rise: survey

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Wednesday, Jun 20, 2007
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Ageing population on the rise: survey

Aarti Dhar

It calls for improved working conditions

Population ageing will occur rapidly in developing countries
Female share in older population will increase markedly

NEW DELHI: Populations of most countries are ageing rapidly due to decreased fertility and increased longevity. Between 2005 and 2050, it is expected that an increase in the population of over 60-plus people will account for about half of the total growth in the world population, according to the World Economic and Social Survey, 2007.

Continued population ageing in the future decades is expected and even inevitable, as it will be driven mostly by changes in fertility, mortality and migration that have already occurred.

According to the survey, the proportion of older persons in the developed countries (21 per cent) is much higher than that in developing countries (8 per cent). Population ageing will occur more rapidly in developing countries than it did in developed countries and in countries with economies in transition. Hence, the world’s population of older persons will increasingly be concentrated in developing countries. By 2050, it is expected that 79 per cent of those aged 60 or over will live in developing countries.

Working age population

In 2005, for the world as a whole, less than one-fifth of the working age population (15-64 years) were older workers in the age group 50-64. This proportion is expected to grow more than one-fourth by 2050.

For the developed countries, those aged 50 or above are expected to make up almost one-third of the working age population.

A notable aspect of population ageing is the progressive demographic ageing of the older population itself. At the global level, the most rapidly growing age group consists of persons aged over 80 and above. Although this age group now accounts for less than 1.5 per cent of the total world population, it is expected to more than quadruple over the next four decades (from less than 90 million in 2005 to almost 400 million in 2050).

Men outnumbered

Further, the female share in the older population will increase markedly as women live longer than men. Worldwide, women account for 55 per cent of the population aged 60 years or over and outnumber men by about 70 million.

Among those aged 80 and more, women are nearly twice as in numbers as men, accounting for 65 per cent of the population in this age group.

The survey calls for improved working conditions for older persons that can extend their working life and enhance their contribution and participation in the economy.

It also suggests making the old age pension systems based on multi-pillar system but with a universal social pension scheme at its basis to provide a minimum of income security and keep older persons out of poverty. Health and long-term care systems need to be reformed and adapted to ageing populations, says the survey.

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