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Democrats on course

The Democratic Party in the United States has reason to be confident: whoever wins its nomination for the 2008 presidential election will start as the favourite against the Republican candidate. The American electorate’s rightward drift, which began in 1994 and lasted a decade, has run its course. Issues traditionally championed by liberals are acquiring greater salience in the public discourse. With President George Bush’s approval ratings stuck below 30 per c ent, there is a good chance he will drag the Republican nominee down. Since Mr. Bush shows no sign of abandoning the agenda or style of governance that have produced disastrous results in the domestic as well as international arena, his party’s prospects are likely to remain bleak. The Democratic Party as a whole is steadily sharpening its campaign theme. The leading contenders are focussing more or less on the same issues: the demand for universal health care; the imperative need to address climate change; and the risks of ignoring the growing gap between rich and poor. The one major flaw in the Democratic campaign is that none of the contenders with a chance of winning the nomination has formulated a comprehensive policy package in respect of Iraq. Those who have promised to withdraw the occupying army have not dealt adequately with the critique that their approach will leave West Asia unsettled and thereby jeopardise long-term U.S. interests.

While Senator Hillary Clinton still leads in the opinion polls, Senator Barack Obama is not far behind. The party’s vice presidential nominee for the 2004 election, John Edwards, is pushing the two front runners hard and at least two other contenders are still in with a chance. These calculations could be upset if a Democrat with a powerful message enters the field. Former Vice President Al Gore, who has won international esteem through his extraordinary message on climate change and his consistent opposition to the Iraq war, is considered to be above the fray. He will be a formidable candidate should he decide to contest. Michael Bloomberg, a long-time Democrat who was elected Mayor of New York twice on the Republican ticket, could emerge as a ‘spoiler’ if he opens a third front (much as Ralph Nader did in 2000). Mr. Bloomberg took the first step in this direction when he changed his political affiliation from Republican to independent in mid-June. But whatever be the eventual line-up, the 2008 contest for the White House will be one for the Democrats to lose.

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