The Hindu : Front Page : IMD updates monsoon forecast

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Saturday, Jun 30, 2007
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IMD updates monsoon forecast

P. Sunderarajan

NEW DELHI: The India Meteorological Department on Friday issued an update of its forecast for the southwest monsoon. The revised one says that rainfall for the country for the entire season will be 2 per cent less than what was predicted in April.

The nation is now expected to receive only 93 per cent of the long period average (LPA), with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 per cent. The revision was based on models that showed that there was no possibility of evolution of a La Nina phenomenon at least till August. The previous forecast was based on the assumption that such a development could take place.

La Nina and El Nino phenomena have great influence on the country’s monsoon. While La Nina, which develops when the sea surface temperatures go below the average, is good for the monsoon, El Nino, which develops when the temperatures go above the average, is bad for the monsoon. In April, there were strong indications of development of La Nina. But, it did not happen. For a brief period last month, the temperatures went below the average, but subsequently, they increased. The temperatures are now 0.2 degrees Celsius above the average and most statistical models showed that they could remain around that level at least till August.

“The situation today is that there does not seem to be any possibility of the development of La Nina. For that matter, there also does not seem to be any chance for El Nino developing. What we expect is a neutral condition,” a senior IMD official said.

IMD officials said there were indications that monsoon activity over the Pacific region could build up in the coming days, drawing the monsoon system away from India. Consequently, the expectation was that the monsoon would be active for the next 10 to 12 days.

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