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Republican ranks in disarray

Paul Harris

— PHOTO: AFP

The former Massachusetts Governor, Mitt Romney (left), the former New York City Mayor, Rudy Giuliani (centre), and Arizona Senator John McCain stand together before the start of the Republican presidential candidates debate at Saint Anselm College in Manchester, New Hampshire, on June 5.

Students and staff at Regent University are not Rudy Giuliani’s natural constituency. In a conservative Christian college in the southern State of Virginia, Mr. Giuliani’s pro-choice, pro-gay marriage, and pro-gun control views might be expected to go down like a lead balloon.

Yet Mr. Giuliani spoke there last week, slamming the Democrats for being weak on terrorism. “President Clinton did not respond. Osama bin Laden declared war on us. We didn’t hear it,” he said.

Terrorism is Mr. Giuliani’s chosen ground. His only reference to his liberal social views was made jokingly: “Don’t expect to agree with me on everything, because that would be unrealistic. Even I don’t agree with me on everything.” He got laughter and applause in return.

But that quip pretty much sums up the Republicans’ disarray as they seek to find a man — and it will be a man — who can keep the White House in their party’s hands, despite the unpopularity of President George W. Bush.

The party is in turmoil and each campaign has been dogged by scandals, infighting, and arguments. Just a week ago Mr. Giuliani’s problems were magnified when a state chairman of his presidential campaign, Thomas Ravenel, was indicted on charges of cocaine dealing. But it hardly had Mr. Giuliani’s rivals celebrating. Arizona Senator John McCain is sinking in the polls, thanks to his support for the Iraq war. And the former Massachusetts Governor, Mitt Romney, has been derided as a flip-flopper who changes his views to suit circumstances.

All this is in contrast to the Democrats, whose top candidates — Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and John Edwards — are running professional operations. Some experts predict a Democratic win, no matter who the Republicans choose. “I think 2008 might be a year most Republicans would want to sit out,” said Shawn Bowler, a political scientist at the University of California at Riverside.

Perhaps nothing explains Republican turmoil more than the Iraq war. The party is deeply fractured. Some candidates, such as Mr. McCain, are stubbornly pro-war, supporting an increase in troops. Others, such as Mr. Giuliani, are supportive of staying in Iraq but less keen on extending U.S. commitment. Still other candidates want the U.S. to pull out soon. Yet all the Republican hopefuls must contend with the fact that the war is linked to their party. That is bad news in a country where a majority of the people are now firmly of the opinion that the war has been a mistake.

Each Republican candidate is being forced to distance himself from the legacy of Mr. Bush. His presidency, and the power of his once formidable advisers such as Karl Rove, is a ghost of what it once was. Faced with a Democrat-controlled Congress, Mr. Bush’s main power now is his veto.

His domestic agenda is in ruins, and the once united Republican party is fighting bitter wars on Iraq, immigration reform, and foreign policy. Polls show growing disaffection with the Republicans, with a consistent majority preferring a Democrat to win in 2008. An average of recent polls shows an unparalleled 72 per cent believe the U.S. is heading in the wrong direction. Such numbers usually indicate a change in the ruling party.

And there are the individual woes of the Republican candidates. For most of last year Mr. McCain looked a clear favourite, but his campaign has spiralled downwards. His efforts to woo the Right have failed. His sponsorship of a doomed immigration reform bill has convinced many Republicans that he wants to grant millions of illegal immigrants an easy ride to U.S. citizenship, and he is struggling to raise money.

As Mr. McCain has fallen, so Mr. Giuliani has risen. The former Mayor of New York has to win over the party’s conservative base, given his liberal views on abortion, gay marriage, and gun control. If Mr. Giuliani were to win the Republican nomination, it could spur the party’s Right to run an independent candidate who would attract conservative evangelicals and cause a split.

Finally there is the twisting campaign of Mr. Romney. He has poured all his resources into Iowa and New Hampshire, where he leads polls, but figures poorly in the rest of the U.S. Portrayed as someone whose views shift to pander to the party base, he makes gaffes. One notable mistake came after Mr. Romney claimed to be a ‘lifelong’ hunter. It was later revealed he had only been hunting twice in his life.

He is also battling prejudice against his Mormon religion. The Florida televangelist, Bill Keller, called a vote for Mr. Romney a vote for Satan.

Such vicious infighting contrasts strongly with the Democrats, as do the demographics of the candidate lists. While the Democratic field boasts of a potential first woman President, first Black President, and first Hispanic President, the Republican slate is made up entirely of wealthy white men. In a changing America, where minority support is increasingly crucial, the Republicans look out of date and out of touch.

But there is a saviour on the horizon. Although he is another wealthy white man, ex-Law and Order star Fred Thompson, a former Tennessee Senator turned TV actor, has many Republicans believing he can rescue their party. He has certainly lit up the stage. After a tantalising “will he, won’t he?” campaign, Mr. Thompson is exploring a presidential run. That announcement alone has been enough to propel him into second place in the polls, behind Mr. Giuliani. Last week’s polls showed a Thompson surge of between two and 13 points, leapfrogging Mr. McCain and Mr. Romney and making a Giuliani versus Thompson face-off likely.

Mr. Thompson’s nascent campaign staff are courting lobbyists and preparing to poach top staffers from the troubled campaigns of rival Republican candidates. “Team Thompson will get a number of defections easily,” said one party organiser. Money is starting to pour into Mr. Thompson’s coffers. He has a significant head start in simple name recognition — he is familiar to millions through his TV role as a judge. Fame aside, he fulfils many key elements of the Republican ideal that other candidates don’t. He is centre-right. He is Southern. His jocular style and charisma have brought comparisons to another actor now considered a political saint: Ronald Reagan. Doubts remain about how substantial Mr. Thompson is and how much appetite he has for a gruelling campaign.

Even without Mr. Thompson, it is not all gloom for Republicans. Americans do prefer an unnamed Democrat over a Republican in most polls, but when the question changes to name a specific candidate, they waver. In head-to-head match-ups, Mr. Giuliani still beats Ms. Clinton and Mr. Obama. Even the faltering Mr. McCain loses to Ms. Clinton by an average of only 0.3 per cent.

So it’s all to play for. Not even the Iraq war is necessarily a vote-loser for Republicans. Mr. Giuliani shows that being tough on Iraq can still win votes. It would be a brave Democrat who would campaign on American retreat.

Finally, looming above both parties is Michael Bloomberg. The billionaire Mayor of New York can simply write out a cheque to himself and run as an independent. He would campaign as a social moderate and a fiscal conservative, with appeal to both political stripes.

It could raise, indeed, the prospect no one could have foreseen even a few months ago: that of both Republicans and Democrats ultimately losing the 2008 race for the White House. —

Guardian Newspapers Limited 2007

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