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Erdogan’s party poised for win

Atul Aneja

Tensions between Islamists, secularists

DUBAI: Turkey’s democracy is on test as a wide variety of political formations vie for power in Sunday’s crucial general elections.

Led by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the ruling Justice and Development (AK) party is expected to do well in the polls.

It is likely to corner more than the existing 34 per cent of seats in Parliament, mainly on account of its impressive economic performance during Mr. Erdogan’s first term in office.Analysts point out that the AK party-led Government has succeeded in extending economic benefits to a wider section of Turks.

While in the past, wealth had been concentrated in Istanbul’s tiny industrial elite, small entrepreneurs in Anatolia have now also benefited from economic reforms.

Besides, Turkey has attracted substantial foreign investments recently. The AK party has Islamist roots.

Its success has wider implications as it shows that a party with religious connotations can also function effectively in a modern democracy.

Turkey’s minority Kurds are also fancying their chances during the polls. Observers say that the Kurdish Democratic Society Party is unlikely to muster the required 10 per cent of the seats, which would make it eligible to enter Parliament.

However, the party is fielding several candidates as “independents.” These candidates could regroup inside Parliament in case they succeed in securing sufficient numbers.

The success of Kurdish parties in neighbouring Iraq has raised hopes among the Kurds in Turkey. However, the rise of the Kurds in Iraq has rung alarm bells among several sections in Turkey. Many Turks apprehend that the Kurds in Iraq, encouraged by the Americans, are likely to form an independent Kurdish state. If that happens, it could encourage Kurdish separatism in Turkey. Rising on a wave of ultra-nationalism, triggered by the Kurdish question, the Nationalist Movement Party is expected to expand its vote bank in Sunday’s elections.

With AK party’s success imminent, tensions are running high between its cadres and workers of the traditional secularists of the Republican People’s Party.

Mr. Erdogan had earlier this year clashed with the military by nominating his Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul as the presidential candidate.

The military had opposed the candidature of Mr. Gul for his alleged pro-Islamic leanings. In the past, the military has twice staged coups in Turkey. In case the AK party, which is seeking political reforms, wins elections, its tussle with the military can be expected to heighten, observers say.

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