The Hindu : National : Rise in temperatures will impact crops: study

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Wednesday, Jul 25, 2007
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Rise in temperatures will impact crops: study

Gargi Parsai

NEW DELHI: Even as production of wheat shows a steady decline and that of coarse cereals and pulses seems to have stagnated, predictions of a fall in farm production has got the Centre worried.

An Agriculture Ministry paper quoted global studies indicating the probability of a 10-40 per cent loss in crop production by 2080-2100 due to rise in temperatures.

Recent studies at the Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI) indicated the possibility of a loss of 4-5 million tonnes in wheat production for every one degree centigrade rise in temperature (estimated for 2010-2030 period).

Losses for other crops, especially kharif crops, were expected to be smaller, the study said. Greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide, are said to be responsible for global warming.

The IARI study showed that losses in wheat output could be reduced from 4-5 million tonnes to 1-2 million tonnes if a large percentage of farmers shifted to “timely planting” and better adapted varieties.

The study said increasing climatic variability associated with global warming would result in seasonal/annual fluctuations in food production. Droughts, floods, tropical cyclones, heavy precipitation and heat waves were known to negatively impact farm production and the livelihoods of farmers.

The rising temperatures were likely to lead to an increase in fertilizer requirement for meeting future food production demands and, in turn, to higher emissions of greenhouse gases, the study said. Increasing sea and river water temperatures were likely to affect fish breeding, migration and harvests. Coral reefs in Indian seas were predicted to decline from 2040.

The study advocated investment in research capacity, enhanced capability for weather forecasts and applications in agriculture, and development of contingency plans for temperature and rainfall-related risks. It also called for new land use systems, including development of heat and drought-tolerant crop varieties.

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