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Abe’s fall from grace

Shinzo Abe’s rapid fall from grace reflects a modern democratic phenomenon — the accelerating pace at which initially enthusiastic voters become disillusioned with new leaders. Tony Blair had six years before things really began to go pear-shaped. Japan’s Prime Minister had little more than six months.

Mr. Abe’s public approval ratings plunged from nearly 70 per cent last September, when he was appointed by the ruling Liberal Democratic party (LDP), to 40 per cent in February. Now he is down to 30 per cent or less.

The reasons for Mr. Abe’s difficulties are not as obvious as might first appear. Nor will the underlying structural disconnections in Japanese political life suddenly be repaired by his ritual defenestration, if that is indeed what happens.

At one level, the mere fact that the cool, detached — and popularly unelected — Mr. Abe is not Junichiro Koizumi, his charismatic predecessor, is often given as a reason for public disenchantment. Internal opposition to the relatively young Mr. Abe among LDP elders is said to have further undermined him.

Far more fundamental to Mr. Abe’s problems, and those facing any successor, is the growing disconnection between Japan’s political system and the people it is supposed to represent. The LDP has wielded almost unbroken power for more than 50 years. The pretence of a healthy multi-party system grows ever harder to maintain. —

Guardian Newspapers Limited 2007

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