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Russia’s plan for presence in the Mediterranean

The declaration this month by the commander of the Russian navy that Moscow intends to re-establish a permanent naval presence in the Mediterranean is under close scrutiny in capitals from Washington to Tel Aviv. The move carries myriad, challenging implications, ranging from the U.S. Sixth Fleet’s regional monopoly on naval power to the security of trans-Caucasian and North African energy supply routes.

Yet it is the prospect of Russia reactivating its Cold War naval bases in Syria’s Tartus and Latakia ports which could have the most dramatic impact. By raising Syria’s stock in the region, analysts say such a move could further complicate western attempts to achieve settlements in Lebanon and Palestine. Defensive missile and surveillance systems around any Russian installations might also shift the military balance to Israel’s disadvantage.

A brief by Stratfor.com, a private U.S. intelligence firm, said: “A Russian naval presence off the Syrian coast could allow Syrian president Bashar al-Assad’s regime to better inoculate itself against a potential attack by the U.S. or Israel ... The Russians would be offering an attractive insurance policy.”

The Kommersant newspaper said the plans were far from implementation. But as the Kiev Post noted, the Black Sea fleet’s lease on its Sevastopol base is hostage to Ukraine’s volatile relations with Moscow. — ©Guardian Newspapers Limited, 2007

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