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Fickle “Brown bounce”

Political honeymoons are notoriously short-lived and nobody recognises this better than the politicians themselves. So, it is unlikely that British Prime Minister Gordon Brown will be perturbed by a new poll indicating a dip in the recent dramatic surge in Labour Party’s popular ratings. According to a Guardian/ICM poll, published on Monday, the party’s lead over the Conservatives has shrunk enough to induce second thoughts about Mr. Brown 217;s plans for a snap election as early as in October. The poll findings suggest that just two months since Mr. Brown became Prime Minister, there are signs that the much-talked-about “Brown bounce” which had caused an upsurge in the Labour party’s support, in marked contrast to the party’s ebbing popularity under Tony Blair, might be more fickle than had been previously assumed. It now seems that the “bounce,” which so excited political pundits, may have had a lot to do with the widespread national relief over the departure of Mr. Blair from Downing Street. Given that Mr. Blair had been regarded by his party colleagues as a political liability after his disastrous Iraq adventure and had been effectively shunted out, anyone who succeeded him was bound to have enjoyed a period of honeymoon.

While some of Mr. Brown’s favourable ratings reflected approval of his handling of the fallout from the London-Glasgow terror plot, and his government’s response to the foot-and-mouth crisis and the floods, that sheen now appears to be wearing off. Broadly, the new poll shows that the Labour Party, which until a few weeks ago had a robust lead over Conservatives, is now ahead only by five points. On the other hand, the Conservatives, who had slipped to an all-time low after a series of policy blunders, have picked up two points. The Guardian newspaper warned that an election at this stage was fraught with risks, including the possible loss of Mr. Brown’s parliamentary majority if he gambled and held an early gene ral election this autumn. The newspaper also pointed out that if Labour support dropped by just two more points during an election campaign and Conservative support increased Mr. Brown could end up with a majority of only a “little over 10 seats,” much below the current tally. Technically, an election is not due until 2010 but Mr. Brown is keen to secure a popular mandate to demolish criticism that he has been thrust on the country by his party. But as the poll shows, he is still doing well. These are early days yet and it does appear that Mr. Brown need not make haste in rushing to a judgment about the need to call for a snap election until there are clearer indications about the trends of popular support.

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