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Rafsanjani back on centre stage

Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani’s opponents have discovered over the years that it is possible to keep him down but not out. The man who was head of state between 1989 and 1997 and suffered major defeats in presidential as well as parliamentary elections during nearly three decades in politics has bounced back to centre stage by winning the chairmanship of the Assembly of Experts. While chairmen of this body have been mostly content to follow the wishes of the Supreme Religious Leader, the Assembly is actually vested with tremendous power. It is the body that will choose the next Leader and it can even remove the incumbent Syed Ali Khamenei from his post. From all indications, Mr. Rafsanjani does not plan to use his new position to work for Grand Ayatollah Khamenei’s ouster but he has hinted that less drastic measures cannot be ruled out. Given the Assembly’s power to set term limits for the Leader, it could set a date for the ailing incumbent to relinquish office. There has been speculation that Mr. Rafsanjani would like the post for himself. The fact that he is not one of the Grand Ayatollahs — the pre-eminent theologians of Shia Islam — may be a hitch. Mr. Rafsanjani’s supporters could argue that Ayatollah Khamenei was not a religious jurist of such eminence either. Imam Ruhollah Khomeini was considered a great religious scholar and wielded absolute religious as well as political power. His successor, Ayatollah Khamenei, is fortunate that his scholarly credentials have not been widely questioned but future Leaders might not be able to depend solely on political power to score over Grand Ayatollahs who may disagree with their views.

Mr. Rafsanjani apparently intends to get around this problem by pressing for a collective leadership. There is a chance that none of the great theologians will be included in such a re-organised body since it can easily get caught up in internal tussles over the pecking order. A collective leadership can concentrate on issues of strategy and state policy while deferring to the Grand Ayatollahs on religious matters. While Mr. Rafsanjani has argued that such a restructuring is not banned either by the Constitution or religious law, he is likely to face several problems as he tries to carry it out. For one thing, the hardcore cadres of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps and the Basij militia might not be able, after years of indoctrination, to shake off the belief that the theocratic order must be headed by a single Supreme Leader. Mr. Rafsanjani is not likely to have his way if he cannot win over the forces that form the backbone of the regime.

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