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Nawaz Sharif’s deportation and after

— PHOTO: AFP

A Nawaz Sharif supporter during a demonstration in Peshawar on Tuesday.

Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf may have got rid of one challenge by forcibly re-exiling the former Prime Minister, Nawaz Sharif, to Saudi Arabia but he cannot similarly deport the other legal and political challenges he faces in the coming days to his plan to extend his rule by another five years.

The President’s term ends on November 15. If he wants to go ahead with his plan for re-election from the present Parliament, it has to happen between September 17 and October 16 — “not earlier than sixty days and not later than thirty days before the expiration of the term” as laid down in the Constitution.

But it is a measure of the confusion in the presidential camp that there is no sign yet of the election process cranking to life. On Tuesday, the Chief Election Commissioner said the date of the presidential election would be announced “within a few days.”

Meanwhile, coming up in the Supreme Court on September 17 is a petition challenging the President to Hold Another Office Act, 2004 that allowed President Musharraf to remain Army Chief. The Jamat-e-Islami petition wants the court to declare the act mala fide, unconstitutional, and discriminatory, as it makes an exception of General Musharraf in violation of the fundamental right that all citizens are equal before the law.

Another petition admitted but not listed for hearing yet, by Jamat-e-Islami chief Qazi Hussein, challenges President Musharraf’s continuance as Army Chief beyond the retirement age of 60 years, which he crossed in August 2003.

The aim of all these petitions is to stop the President’s re-election while he continues to remain Army Chief, and if he relinquishes the post, to ensure that he is held to another constitutional provision barring a government employee from contesting elections for two years after retirement.

Commentators predict that the government’s defiance of the Supreme Court in deporting Mr. Sharif — the court had ruled that it was his fundamental right to return to Pakistan and that the government should ensure this — may have an impact on the petitions before the Supreme Court. “We might see an increased tension between the judiciary and the executive, which may have implications for other cases,” said Hassan Askari Rizvi, formerly of the political science department in the University of Punjab, Lahore.

For President Musharraf, the political arena is proving as tricky to negotiate as the courts, even downright treacherous. A constitutional amendment to the two-year bar on retiring government employees in elected office would solve part of his problem about giving up the uniform. It needs two-thirds support in Parliament, which the ruling Pakistan Muslim League (Q) alone cannot provide.

It appears that Benazir Bhutto’s Pakistan People’s Party, with which President Musharraf is in talks, and which wants him to step down as Army Chief before his proposed re-election, may be willing to support such an amendment. But Ms. Bhutto has her own wish list. As a result, President Musharraf’s talks with her have run into a quicksand of objections from the PML (Q).

Fearing oblivion after a Musharraf-Benazir understanding, the ruling party has made it plain it will do nothing that will enable her to pole vault to power on its shoulders. Crucially, it has refused support to removing the two-term bar on a Prime Minister, one of Ms. Bhutto’s — she has been Prime Minister twice already — main demands.

The PML (Q) wants President Musharraf to go ahead and contest the election in uniform, announcing it will back him fully. Ms. Bhutto says she has kept a window open for continuing negotiations with President Musharraf, but she has also announced her intention to return to Pakistan, “without or without” a deal with him.

With Mr. Sharif out of the way, it may be easier for President Musharraf to force the PML (Q) to come to terms with his proposed partnership with Ms. Bhutto. Defecting to Mr. Sharif’s PML (N) is no longer a real option for rebellious ruling party legislators.

But at this moment, Ms. Bhutto, who has claimed her talks with the Musharraf regime are aimed at a peaceful transition to democracy and ensuring a level playing field for all political actors, will find it extremely difficult to explain how this can be achieved with Mr. Sharif back in Saudi Arabia.

A party statement tried to distance itself from the deportation drama by pointing to his admission that he had entered into an agreement with the Saudi and Pakistan governments to get out of jail and leave Pakistan in 2000.

But prominent PPP leaders such as Aitzaz Ahsan had a different view. Mr. Ahsan, who was lead counsel for Chief Justice Iftikhar Chowdhury in his legal battle against President Musharraf over his dismissal, called it a “kidnapping” and described Saudi Arabia as “Pakistan’s Guantanamo.”

The political resentment against President Musharraf is predicted to rise in the coming days.

“There is smug satisfaction in the government that they have been able to send Sharif out. Musharraf has won the round, but the question is, has he won the fight?” said Shafquat Mahmood, a former Senator and a political columnist for The News.

According to Mr. Mahmood, people are angered by the manner in which the government used its might to pack off Mr. Sharif back into exile. Plus, there is resentment at the Saudi role in the whole drama, with questions being asked about its implications for Pakistan’s sovereignty.

“The tensions between the Opposition parties and the Musharraf government are going to increase. Other political parties will try to challenge Musharraf even more now as the presidential election approaches,” said Dr. Rizvi.

Nor has the challenge from Mr. Sharif entirely receded. The PML (N) has appeared demoralised and unable to mobilise enough people to challenge the deportation on the street. But Mr. Sharif has emerged in better light than at any other time since 2000. The PML (N) petition in court accusing the government of contempt is also a significant legal challenge against President Musharraf.

In the next few days, the Pakistan ruler must decide if it is any more feasible to go for re-election from the present Parliament or to wait until after the general elections. With nothing ruled out in these troubled times — emergency and martial law are two options perpetually hovering in the wings — a “Plan B” was recently floated by those who believe that Musharraf must remain at the top and keep his military uniform: the presidential election is held as scheduled, but President Musharraf steps back from re-election, a puppet is elected, who then gives him an extension as the Army Chief.

But if the decision is for re-election from the next Assemblies, a dissolution of the National Assembly can be expected before its term ends on November 16, with general elections within the stipulated 90 days. President Musharraf then presents himself as a presidential candidate to the next Parliament. The issue of uniform will stand postponed until then, unless the courts or political compulsions — such as an understanding with Ms. Bhutto — force him to a decision earlier.

But more and more commentators are urging President Musharraf to scrap all plans on the drawing board, initiate a process of national reconciliation — all the better if he can step down — with all actors, including Mr. Sharif, and work towards a free and fair general election, putting his own re-election secondary to the interests of Pakistan.

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