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Reshuffling brass

The Pakistan army’s top hierarchy evokes special interest even in ordinary times, given its role in running the country, whether upfront or from behind the scenes. In the present circumstances, promotions and reassignments in the army assume even more significance. President Pervez Musharraf recently promised the Supreme Court that he would step down as army chief if elected to the office for another term. The court is hearing several constitutional petitions against his eligibility to contest the presidential election while still army chief, and is expected to give a ruling in the case soon. While the undertaking seemed to carry an implicit threat of dire alternatives should the Supreme Court rule him ineligible to contest, General Musharraf’s reshuffle of his top brass suggested that he was securing the fort and preparing the ground for a chosen successor.

As the army vice-chief of staff and the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff committee are due to retire in the second week of October, a reshuffle was on the cards. If all goes according to plan and promise, the next vice-chief will take over as army chief. A civilian President Musharraf will have reason to feel as insecure about his army chief as Pakistan’s non-military presidents have felt in the past. It is in this sense that the likelihood of Lt. Gen. Ashfaq Kiyani, who has been replaced as the head of Inter-Services Intelligence, being appointed to the number 2 position in the army is significant. Both Lt. Gen. Kiyani and Lt. General Nadeem Taj, the new ISI chief, enjoy the Pakistan leader’s trust and are known to be competent officers. Lt. Gen Taj used to head Military Intelligence. He is also believed to have played a role in initiating the regime’s contact with the Pakistan People’s Party leader, Benazir Bhutto. Last month, Lt. Gen Kiyani surfaced as a player in the team negotiating with the exiled leader. If President Musharraf hopes to have any kind of political future, he will need to wield indirect influence over the army after moving to Civvy Street. But how realistic is it to expect senior generals in uniform to defer to a retired boss under politically volatile circumstances, even if he manages to manipulate for himself another term as head of state?

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