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An unavoidable divorce

Marriages, at least modern ones, need the concurrence of both parties; but more often than not, divorces are forced by one of them. It was politically expedient in January 2006 for the Kumaraswamy-led legislators of the Janata Dal (Secular) in Karnataka to strike a deal with the Bharatiya Janata Party to bring down the Congress-led government of Dharam Singh. After serving his half term as Chief Minister, H.D. Kumaraswamy evidently sees no incentive to continue this unhappy marriage. When he steps down as Chief Minister on October 3, the JD(S) is unlikely to back its coalition partner’s nominee for chief ministership. The relations between the two parties have been under severe strain for the past several months, with the principals and bit players on the two sides pulling against each other and the Ananth Kumar faction of the BJP working actively against the Yediyurappa faction. The bizarre attempt-to-murder petition filed by BJP Minister B. Sriramulu against the Chief Minister is only the latest of a series of irritants; the ‘voluntary’ resignation of the Minister, which comes with a parting kick at the Chief Minister, is likely to be treated as too little, too late. The JD(S) led by former Prime Minister Deve Gowda makes a fine distinction between taking the support of the BJP to form a government and supporting the BJP. It could point to the fact that the November 2005 transfer of chief ministership in Jammu and Kashmir took several weeks of hard negotiations. Although Mr. Gowda, who takes pride in his secular credentials, reconciled himself to his son running away with the ball and partnering the BJP to become Chief Minister, he has clearly not been politically comfortable with the arrangement. With a general election looking virtually certain in early- to mid-2008, the JD(S) will calculate that there is little to lose by ending its Karnataka arrangement. It will feel encouraged by its better-than-expected performance in the local body elections.

With this turn of the political wheel, every possible combination within the Karnataka Assembly will have been exhausted: first, a Congress-JD(S) coalition, then a JD(S)-BJP coalition. Theoretically, only a Congress-BJP arrangement will remain to be tried out and that of course will be unthinkable. In such a situation, where the Congress and the JD(S) cannot come together again and the BJP and JD(S) appear to have broken up, a fresh Assembly election can be the only way out. Karnataka remains the BJP’s strongest base in south India. The single largest party in the State Assembly may feel cheated but it must bow to the inevitable — if the JD(S) confirms its virtual decision to walk out of the arrangement. Going to the people for a fresh mandate is the only way out in Karnataka and the next Assembly election can perhaps be held alongside the contest for Gujarat due towards the end of the year.

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