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Narendra Modi’s new avatar

— Photo: PTI

Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi presents a cheque to an adivasi girl in Ahmedabad on Tuesday.

How well placed is Narendra Modi to win the 2007 Gujarat election? The feedback from the ground suggests a tough fight ahead. However, the Chief Minister is not one to give up easily. Over the past year, he has covered the State many times over, travelling from daybreak to midnight, reaching out especially to vulnerable sections — women, tribals, and farmers.

In the past month, he has addressed a string of mahila sammelans (women’s meet), focussing on the girl child, education, health, and sanitation. This is a shrewd move because most political parties assume this group does not have a separate identity. He has also projected himself as a friend and saviour of tribals, knowing the Congress desperately wants to win back their affections. A dramatic case in point is his October 2 handing over of ownership rights of forest land to 30 tribals — a gesture calculated to draw attention to the Congress’ prevarication on notifying the rules of the Forest Rights Act (The Scheduled Tribes And Other traditional Forest Dwellers [Recognition of Forest Rights] Act, 2006.)

In 2002, Mr. Modi was the rampaging Hindutva warrior whose fight against Muslims won him frenzied admiration. In 2007, the image he projects is of a modernist with a dream for his State. Mr. Modi’s publicity managers call him a “futuristic Chief Minister” whose foresight and vision have made “vibrant Gujarat” the single most attractive destination for global investors. They recall with pride the laurels he recently won in China. Mr. Modi himself told The Hindu that he wanted Gujarat to become a “first world” State. His mission, he said, was just one: “Gujarat ki seva [service to Gujarat].” Consequently, there was also only one issue in this election: “My service to Gujarat as its longest-serving Chief Minister.”

Will the strategy pay off? Mr. Modi knows that the raw, surging passion that won him two-thirds majority in 2002 has long cooled off. The Congress resurgence in the 2004 Lok Sabha election proved this. However, Mr. Modi has also learnt from the 2002 election that the Gujarati emotion can be tapped for votes. Hence the attempt today to equate Gujarat’s development with Gujarati asmita (identity) and Gujarati swabhiman (self-respect). As the Chief Minister told The Hindu: “Gujaratis are emotionally attached to their State. This can be converted into an inspiration to do better.”

For Mr. Modi, “vibrant Gujarat” is quite clearly Hindutva redefined, both themes designed to exploit the Gujarati emotion. However, the actual effect of “vibrant Gujarat,” with its accent on infrastructure and investment, has been to separate Mr. Modi from his post-Godhra image. In 2002, any criticism of him was considered a travesty — because he symbolised the post-Godhra communal belligerence. “Pseudo-secularists” sitting in faraway Delhi could denounce him in seminars but on Gujarat soil even his political opponents had to measure their words.

Today, with the focus on development, the anti-Modi dissidents — many of them ironically from the Hindutva stable — have finally been liberated from the shackles and collective censorship of 2002. At last month’s rally in Rajkot, they used language unthinkable until recently. Observers said they were stunned by the aggression on display: In post-Godhra Gujarat, this would be the first time anyone condemned Mr. Modi so strongly from a public platform. Last week, Keshubhai Patel, so far in the background, openly criticised the Chief Minister.

Indeed, the negatives Mr. Modi confronts in this election are in considerable measure due to the physical distance between 2002 and 2007. And the negatives are many, starting with the anger he faces in Saurashtra, the State’s largest geographical region with 58 Assembly seats. At the centre of this disaffection are the upper caste Leuva Patels, the largest sub-group among the Patels. This community is banking on Kolis, currently disenchanted with Mr. Modi, to lend it numerical strength. Thus far, Patels and Kolis have formed the backbone of the BJP’s support in Saurashtra.

Various estimates place the Patel population in Gujarat (including the Leuva sub-group) at between 12 per cent and 16 per cent. The range for Kolis is between 18 per cent and 24 per cent. Suffice it to say that should even a fraction of the Patel-Koli vote go against the BJP, the party could suffer further reverses in a region where it is already on a downward curve. The BJP dropped votes and seats here in the 2002 Assembly election, at the height of Mr. Modi’s popularity, and again in the 2004 Lok Sabha election. This despite retaining the support of Patels and Kolis.

The second problem area for Mr. Modi is the tribal vote. Once the bastion of the Congress, the 15 adivasi-dominated constituencies of central Gujarat went wholly with the BJP in 2002. The BJP led the Congress by 23 percentage points (source: The patterns and lessons; Frontline, January 3, 2003) in these seats, and not least because of the by-now established fact of tribal participation in the anti-Muslim violence. The Congress partially recovered its base in the 2004 Lok Sabha election, and has since then held several well-attended meetings in the region.

Earlier this year, huge crowds turned up to hear Sonia Gandhi in the adivasi hamlet of Deogadh Baria in Dahod district. Mr. Modi’s rallies in these parts have been smaller by comparison.

To be sure, even today the BJP enjoys a measure of tribal support. However, there is also resentment among the tribals over their induced co-option in the 2002 communal violence.

The biggest worry for Mr. Modi, though, is the hostility of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh and the Vishwa Hindu Parishad. In 2002, the parivar was at the vanguard of the anti-Muslim campaign. Today, Praveen Togadia has the harshest words for Mr. Modi and the VHP has already announced its decision not to campaign for the Chief Minister.

All of this undoubtedly adds up to an unhappy picture for Mr Modi. Yet there are questions. Will the Leuva Patel-Koli anger convert into votes for the Congress? After all, both communities still swear by the BJP, and have no tangible complaint against Mr. Modi, barring feeling a sense of injustice. Can the parivar campaign against Mr. Modi knowing the Congress will benefit from it?

There is also the legend of Mr. Modi — a larger than life figure who unfailingly outsmarts his opponents. His October 2 largesse to tribals proves this. Today, the Congress is on the backfoot on the Forest Act — intended as a revolutionary step — with doubts being raised about the party’s sincerity towards tribals. The urban support for Mr. Modi is another factor: Gujarat’s 37 per cent urban population identifies in large measure with his “Gujarat shining” vision.

Finally, Mr. Modi is an indefatigable campaigner. The Congress is as usual a divided house. The Congress leadership has refused to project Shankarsinh Waghela, the one man capable of taking on Mr. Modi, for fear of alienating other chief ministerial candidates. The Congress is also mixed up with the BJP dissidents which has robbed it of its individual identity. So, on the one side, there is Mr. Modi. And, on the other, there is the Congress without a programme and without a leader.

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