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Congratulations, General?

President Pervez Musharraf can take little comfort from winning a contentious election that was challenged at every step, whose result cannot be notified until the Supreme Court decides if his candidacy was legal, and that has polarised Pakistan’s polity. In the last six months, the entire energy of the state was focussed on securing another five years for the General from a dying electoral college without him having to resign as army chief. Following the botched att empt to sack the Chief Justice, General Musharraf had to go to extraordinary lengths to ensure for himself another term: sealing a dodgy deal with one former Prime Minister-in exile, re-exiling another in the face of all democratic norms, and effecting a dubious last minute change in election laws to favour himself. If, after all this, the Pakistan leader had not achieved his objective, it would have been a surprise. But this was a race in which he was the only real contestant, and his supporters the only voters, with the opposition parties either resigning from the electoral college or abstaining from the process. The judiciary gave President Musharraf a leg-up by looking away so that the election could be held but it has kept a sword dangling over him by deciding to hear the petitions against him later this month.

Even so, barring the unlikely event of the Supreme Court ruling against him, General Musharraf is the new President of Pakistan. With his credibility already eroded, the authority and stability of his new term will depend on the realignment of political forces in the coming months and the outcome of the general election that must be held before January 15. President Musharraf’s need for a larger and more credible political base led him to cut a deal with former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto. But the electoral fortunes of her Pakistan People’s Party, which will determine its influence and role in the new dispensation, could well turn out to be the proverbial double-edged sword for him. Continuing unrest in the polity, the seemingly unstoppable advance of extremism, and a newly assertive media add to the uncertainty. Most important is his own standing with the Pakistan military once he carries out his promise to step down as the army chief. As General Musharraf himself acknowledged in a recent interview, the new army chief will continue to play an important role in governance. Managing contradictions may be a well-recognised part of politics but the challenge that President Musharraf faces is much bigger than that. On his ability to accommodate these varying and conflicting interests hangs Pakistan’s “smooth transition to civilian democracy” — and by extension its relations with the world, including India.

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