The Hindu : National : India yet to realise replacement level fertility

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Friday, Oct 12, 2007
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India yet to realise replacement level fertility

Aarti Dhar

NEW DELHI: India’s population continues to grow faster than necessary to replace itself, and with only a few years to go, its goal of achieving replacement level fertility of 2.1 children a woman by 2010 is yet to be realised.

According to the National Family and Health Survey-3, at the current fertility rate, women will have an average of 2.7 children, slightly lower than 2.85 measured in 1998-1999 by the NFHS-2.

The urban women had achieved the replacement level fertility, having a total fertility rate (TFR) of 2.1. But the TFR among rural women is still high at 3.0. If all women had only the number of children they say they want, the replacement level fertility could be achieved, the latest NFHS says.

Ten States are already at or below the replacement level fertility and several others are close to achieving that level. The total fertility rate is much higher (three or more children a woman) in eight States, and is particularly high (3.7 to 4.0) in Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Meghalaya and Nagaland.

Early marriage

A major cause of this high TFR is early marriage. While the percentage of those who get married before the legal minimum age has been dropping over time, 46 per cent of younger women, aged between 18-29 years, still get married before 18.

More than 64 per cent of women in Bihar marry before the legal age. In Jharkhand it is 68 per cent, Rajasthan 58, Andhra Pradesh 56, 53 in West Bengal and Madhya Pradesh, 52 in Uttar Pradesh and 51 in Chhattisgarh.

Men get married about six year later than women but even then 27 per cent of men get married before the legal minimum age of 21, the survey points out.

Over the past 13 years, there has been a steady increase in the use of modern contraceptive method, from 37 per cent in NFHS-1 (1992-93) to 43 per cent in NFHS-2 (1998-99) and 49 per cent in NFHS-3. While the use of modern methods in rural areas is less compared to urban areas, use of modern methods (pills, condoms and IUDs) has increased steadily in both urban and rural areas.

Use of contraception among currently married women aged 15-49 varies substantially across States, from a low of 24 per cent in Meghalaya to a high of 73 per cent in Himachal Pradesh. More than two-thirds of married women use modern methods in Himachal Pradesh (71 per cent) and Andhra Pradesh (67 per cent).

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