Opinion - News Analysis   

Seeking an arc of stability in West Asia

Iran, Syria, and Turkey, relying on their growing energy ties, are trying to form an arc of stability around turbulent Iraq. They have decided to work together on transferring Iranian gas to Syria. According to Iranian officials, Syria will receive three billion cubic metres of Iranian gas annually through Turkey. The project, which will yield Iran an annual revenue of $1 billion, is likely to be completed by 2009.

Iran already transfers substantial amounts of gas to Turkey. A pipeline links Iran’s northern city of Tabriz with Ankara. Syria shares a border with Turkey, making it a natural gateway for trans-border energy exports.

By agreeing to transfer gas to Syria, Turkey is positioning itself as a major transit hub for exporting Iranian gas in multiple directions. Ankara has already signed a deal for acquiring gas from Iran and its Central Asian neighbour, Turkmenistan. Two pipelines will be involved in the project. One will carry Turkmenistan’s gas into Turkey through Iran and the second will transfer gas from Iran’s giant South Pars field to Turkey.

However, Turkey will consume only part of this gas. The rest could be transferred to Europe through the proposed Nabucco pipeline system. The 3,300-km pipeline is set to transfer 30 billion cubic metres of gas annually from Turkey to Austria. It will pass through Bulgaria, Romania, and Hungary before reaching the energy-hungry markets of Western Europe. Work on the pipeline is expected to begin in 2008 and it is likely to be commissioned three years later.

Turkey’s readiness to allow Iranian gas to pass through its territory is only one aspect of its long-term commitment towards Tehran’s energy sector. Turkey, which has decided to invest heavily in the South Pars gas field, declared recently that it would be ready to raise the required $3.5 billion for the project entirely on its own. While $2 billion will be used to establish a new pipeline, the rest will be spent on the development of South Pars.

This statement by the Turkish Energy Ministry came after foreign banks indicated their reluctance to finance the project. Arranging funds for large projects in Iran’s oil and gas sector is not easy. The Iran Sanctions Act of the United States bars foreign investments above $20 million in Iran’s hydrocarbons sector. Consequently, the Americans can boycott any company found violating this law. By committing itself to fund its stake in South Pars, the state-owned Turkish Petroleum Company (TPAO) could find itself on the firing line once the project materialises.

Iran has been pleased with Turkey’s resolve to develop South Pars as it has high stakes in its development. Tehran hopes to transfer South Pars gas to Europe and Asia. While the Nabucco system will eventually carry gas to Europe, Tehran hopes that the Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline, which also originates in South Pars, will become one of its chief gateways for exporting gas to Asia.

Turkey’s resolve to go ahead with its investments in Iran has major political implications. It shows that on energy, Ankara has decided to confront Washington. Many public statements have come from Washington, seeking to dissuade Turkey from engaging with Iran in the energy sector. Turkey’s Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is not impressed by the U.S. exhortations. On more than one occasion he has declared Turkey’s intention to safeguard its core energy ties with Iran and Russia.

There have been other agreements among a string of countries that are wedged contiguously between the Mediterranean Sea and the Persian Gulf. For instance, Syria, Turkey, and Egypt are considering a trilateral arrangement, under which Egyptian gas will transit through Syria before reaching Turkey. This agreement is part of the development of the Arab gas pipeline system. Egyptian gas will reach Syria through Jordan before entering Turkey. Another upcoming project that has drawn considerable international attention involves Syria, Iran, and Venezuela — Iran’s key Latin American ally. The three countries plan to establish in Syria an oil refinery with a daily output of 140,000 barrels.

While the Americans debate plans to restore order in Iraq and consider military action against Iran, Tehran, Damascus, and Ankara are making their own decisions in the energy sector. These decisions, once implemented, are likely to have significant political implications. By deepening their interdependence in the energy sector, they are working towards establishing a semi-independent zone of stability close to West Asia’s borders with Europe.

Printer friendly page  
Send this article to Friends by E-Mail

Stories in this Section

Political crisis defused
Elections but new themes
The ways of the Canadian bureaucracy
Seeking an arc of stability in West Asia
Diana inquest — a simple waste of money
Climate change: where science and politics collide
Corrections and clarifications
Ajmer blast
On ragging
Welcome protest

Copyright © 2007, The Hindu. Republication or redissemination of the contents of this screen are expressly prohibited without the written consent of The Hindu