The Hindu : Karnataka / Bangalore News : Climate change: the poorest will be hit the hardest

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Monday, Oct 15, 2007
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Karnataka - Bangalore

Climate change: the poorest will be hit the hardest

Divya Gandhi

U.S. continues to be the biggest polluter

20 Indian scientists are among the lead authors of the IPCC reports
Population growth and lack of adequate planning are adding to global warming

Bangalore: Of the several hundred members of the working groups of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which shared the Nobel Peace Prize along with the former U.S. Vice-President Al Gore, 20 Indian scientists are among the lead authors of its reports. Each of the three reports hold a stark mirror to the mounting evidence of global warming.

Three of the four Bangalore-based scientists who are among the lead authors of the IPCC reports spoke to The Hindu about what climate change will mean to India.

Complicating global warming scenarios in India are the pressures of population growth and the lack of adequate planning, believes J. Srinivas, Chairman of the Mechanical Science Division and Professor at the Centre for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at the Indian Institute of Science (IISc.). He was also the lead author in “Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis.”

“We do know that floods and droughts will increase. What makes things particularly complicated for India is that people have begun to inhabit places that make them acutely vulnerable to these phenomena,” he says.

Dryland farmers, fishing communities, forest-resource dependent communities — the country’s poorest — will be the most adversely affected, says N.H. Ravindranath, Chairman, Centre for Sustainable Technology, IISc., and lead author of IPCC’s “Working Group III: Mitigation of Climate Change.”

“The environmental and poverty implications must be studied closely at the national level, and the poor protected from the consequences of climate change,” he adds.

Speaking of the impact of climate change on biodiversity, R. Sukumar, Professor, Centre for Ecological Sciences (IISc) and lead author of “Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability”, said: “Rise in temperature and changes in rainfall patterns will influence seasonality, and there is not doubt that it will impact vegetation and its associated biodiversity such as wildlife.”

India’s contribution

On India’s contribution to climate change, Prof. Srinivasan said that in per capita terms India’s role was small, with emissions not exceeding 4 to 5 per cent of global CO{-2} emissions. The U.S. is the single largest contributor with 20 to 25 per cent, he added. In aggregate terms, however, India ranks among the 10 highest contributors, says Prof. Ravindranath, adding that by the year 2020 India will climb up to fourth or fifth place in terms of global emissions, sharing the same league as U.S. and China.

Even as the U.S. refuses ratify the Kyoto Protocol to reduce its emissions, what role do these scientists see for India in mitigating climate change?

“We should do our part to reduce the pace. It is something that is bound to affect us, after all,” Prof. Sukumar believes.

As important as it is for India’s economy to grow, it should be done efficiently. “We need a technology leapfrog,” he says.

“We need to switch to renewable energy — solar and wind — they have already proved cost-effective,” says Prof. Ravindranath. “We need energy efficiency in every sector, whether in power generation and distribution, or in electrical devices,” he adds.

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