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Will she, won’t she?

President Pervez Musharraf’s repeated messages to Pakistan People’s Party leader Benazir Bhutto that she must put off her planned October 18 return until the Supreme Court decides on the election disqualification case against him reflect the continuing insecurities of the general, and raise concerns about his intentions for Pakistan. The television interviewers through whom he conveyed these messages did not ask him what his fears were, and how the one was link ed to the other. One guess is that he is unsure of the Supreme Court verdict. In the event it rules against him and strips him of his new term in office, the presence of a strong political personality in the country such as the former Prime Minister would restrict the space for any step, political or non-political, that he might want to take to stay on in power. Another explanation, as Ms. Bhutto has suggested, may be that General Musharraf is under pressure from the leadership of the ruling Pakistan Muslim League to keep her out of the country. The PML, a synthetic creation of the general expressly for the purposes of the 2002 election, stands to lose much from the Musharraf-Benazir rapprochement. Its leader declared some days ago that an ordinance granting her amnesty from corruption charges was a political trick to gain the PPP’s backing for the presidential election. Fast on the heels of this, the Supreme Court’s decision to hear a clutch of petitions against the ordinance spelling out that its benefits are subject to the court’s verdict is surely only a coincidence but it has given the government one more reason to ask Ms. Bhutto to stay away.

All this appears to confirm the belief that Ms. Bhutto drew the short straw in the bargain with President Musharraf, especially if he is about to succumb to the anti-Benazir machinations of the PML, or himself wants to restrict her role and influence in the next dispensation. With her credibility touching new lows, Ms. Bhutto can no more afford the luxury of staying away from Pakistan. Whatever the Supreme Court decides in the disqualification case, ordinance or no ordinance, Ms. Bhutto absolutely needs to return in her own political interests. Given President Musharraf’s assertion that he is guiding Pakistan to a civilian democracy in which the army chief will have an important role, it would be too much to say that the future of Pakistan rests on her. But even in the proposed diet democracy, her return may kick-start a process in which political parties with a connection to real people play some role in governance. In this lies the key to Pakistan’s stability, even in the short term.

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