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A sitting duck for bird flu

Contrary to what was seen as a problem confined largely to South-East Asian countries, bird flu is expected to become endemic in some parts of Europe. When that happens, Europe will be the third continent, after Asia and Africa, to acquire that dubious distinction. The warning was issued recently by the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) following the detection of H5N1 virus in domestic ducks by German scientists. In fact, the presence of bird flu in water birds had b een detected over the last couple of years in many other European countries, particularly those bordering the Black Sea that serves as a main wintering resort for migratory birds. That “a new chapter in the evolution of avian influenza may be unfolding silently in the heart of Europe” is disturbing. Unlike poultry, ducks and geese have an uncanny way of harbouring the virus and helping its persistence while apparently appearing healthy. Studies have shown that infected waterfowl can shed bird flu virus for as long as seven days without showing signs of sickness. The FAO’s observation that “Europe should prepare for further waves of avian influenza outbreaks… if the virus succeeds in persisting throughout the year in domestic waterfowl” signals the urgency with which countries have to revisit their monitoring and surveillance strategies. The danger from such a scenario is that avian influenza outbreaks in parts of Europe will not be directly linked to outbreaks or containment in South-East Asia.

South-East Asian countries, particularly Indonesia, have remained a hotspot for bird flu outbreaks in poultry as the H5N1 virus persists in ducks. Much like this region, countries bordering the Black Sea do not separate domestic waterfowl and chicken, thus enabling easy and quick transmission of the virus from ducks to chicken. While the main concern is that such intermingling will lead to frequent H5N1 outbreaks, a bigger danger lies in the possibility of infected ducks facilitating the virus to mutate to a form that will make direct transmission to humans possible and human-to-human transmission easy. There is an increased possibility of such a mutant emerging, with many ducks in different parts of the world becoming the reservoirs of the virus. Human-to-human transmission can be prevented only if ducks and other waterfowl are treated as a population at risk and monitored on a continual basis even when they appear healthy. The German approach of intensified monitoring that helped identify pockets of H5N1 in one of the farms is the only way to win the battle against avian influenza.

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