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It’s a numbers game

Now that the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Janata Dal (Secular) have backed up with firm numbers their case for forming a new government in Karnataka, the Central government is left with no constitutional option but to revoke President’s Rule. Governor Rameshwar Thakur certainly took his time to judge the murky and fast-changing political situation before sending his report to the Centre; but as the BJP and the JD(S) revived their live-in agreement, the only honest course available to him is to let a government be formed under the combine’s leader, B.S. Yeddyurappa. The circumstances under which the two parties decided to share power again were no doubt most unseemly. Nevertheless, the constitutional position is clear: as the Supreme Court held in the Bihar Assembly dissolution case, neither the shifting stands of political parties nor charges of horse trading, deals, and allurements can be a ground for dissolving an Assembly if a government can be formed. In a parliamentary democracy, it cannot be anything other than a numbers game.

It is another matter that regimes born of such rank opportunism are inherently unstable. The BJP-JD(S) coalition is particularly so, given the tensions and contradictions within the JD(S) over allying with a manifestly communal party. Adding spice to the Karnataka situation are two live petitions, submitted in January 2006 (they followed up a letter written by JD(S) president Deve Gowda to the Governor) seeking the disqualification of 37 MLAs, including H.D. Kumaraswamy, for violating the provisions of the anti-defection law. The petitions in the hands of Speaker Krishna, a Gowda loyalist, could hang over the new regime. But that cannot be any of the Governor’s business, which can only be providing an honest answer to the question: do the claimants have adequate numbers on their side? There were several political reasons that prompted the JD(S) to return to the BJP. One was pressure from its own MLAs who did not want an Assembly election before the end of the five-year term. This meant that the only way the JD(S) leadership could keep its flock together was to tie up with the Congress or the BJP. The Congress, however, was under pressure from more than one faction not to do a deal with Mr. Gowda. The faction owing allegiance to former Chief Minister S.M. Krishna and the group of JD(S) defectors led by S. Siddaramaiah were dead against any such deal. Thus did it happen that when the JD(S) was trying to do business with the Congress, the Congress was trying to split the JD(S). On the other hand, a besieged JD(S) leadership found a willing partner in the BJP. Coalitions made of such stuff cannot be reckoned to have a bright future. Meanwhile, Mr. Yeddyurappa cannot be denied his turn in the Chief Minister’s gaddi.

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