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A hotline to prevent a cold war

The decision by China and the United States to set up a hotline between their defence establishments is a sign of new maturity in their expanding engagement. However, the U.S., in its own words, remains “concerned” about “the pace and scope of China’s strategic modernisation programmes,” as reflected in its recent “anti-satellite test.”

During the annual "Shangri-La Dialogue" in Singapore last June, U.S. Defence Secretary Robert Gates revealed that a hotline was likely to be laid to link the Pentagon with the Chinese authorities. Staying that course, despite new differences over the Dalai Lama, Mr. Gates and Chinese Defence Minister Cao Gangchuan announced in Beijing on Monday that they had agreed to set up the planned “direct telephone link.”

Such a link, popularly called a hotline, may, in fact, help Washington and Beijing defuse the possibility of a cold war between the two, while China continues to rise as a potential peer of the U.S. in almost all fields. But, the U.S. is gung-ho about its moves to play “smart games” in its widening engagement with China in the run-up to the 2008 Olympics. China looks upon its opportunity to host the Olympics as a defining event. Mr. Gates reaffirmed U.S. President George W. Bush’s decision to visit Beijing for the Olympics.

On November 6, Mr. Gates met Chinese President Hu Jintao, who was recently re-elected General Secretary of the governing Communist Party of China. Mr. Hu was quoted as having “indicated his support for moving forward on a dialogue on strategic military matters of concern to both sides.”

However, Mr. Gates was no less emphatic that he availed himself of the chance to express U.S. misgivings about China’s recent anti-satellite test.

It is no secret that the anti-satellite test, widely seen as a success, has sky-rocketed China to the elite super-league of very few space-faring nations with capabilities to straddle the extra-terrestrial zone for peace or even war. Equally known is that Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao reaffirmed, soon after the test early this year, that his country would remain steadfast in its resolve to keep outer space as a domain of peace and to insist that all relevant powers do likewise. However, if proof is needed that China’s anti-satellite test has shaken the Pentagon, the latest public pronouncements by Mr. Gates, while still in Beijing, should suffice.

As a matter of not only coincidence but also political symbolism, Mr. Gates said he was informed by General Cao, during their talks, that China’s lunar craft had just then successfully begun orbiting the moon.

The Pentagon chief stayed focussed on China’s emerging prowess in the outer-space domain. And, Washington’s overarching “concern” over Beijing’s anti-satellite test was already articulated by a top U.S. military commander, who described it as a strategic feat comparable to the former Soviet Union’s launch of the Sputnik. In all, the U.S. “concern” over China’s anti-satellite test has now come to colour their defence-related engagement itself.

It is within this framework that Mr. Gates said on Monday that “there was no further discussion” with the Chinese on the anti-satellite test after he raised “our concerns about it.” While this was meant to convey the difficulties of dialogue over such sensitive matters, he did not also fight shy of being optimistic about his “agreement” with General Cao to “deepen” the U.S.-China defence dialogue.

At one level, the U.S. is looking for “greater transparency” from the Chinese side about its “rising” military profile and long-term objectives. On a higher plane, Washington wants to engage Beijing on such other aspects as its “nuclear policy, strategy, and doctrine.” A series of more conventional military-to-military exchanges was also spelt out as a possibility in the context of “confidence building” by the two sides.

General Cao, for his part, spoke about not only the telephone link but also the possibility of conducting “at an appropriate time” a joint naval exercise involving “a relatively more complex scenario” than that the two countries had so far attempted. Describing his talks with Mr. Gates as “pragmatic, candid, and productive,” General Cao noted that their meeting would “further enhance mutual understanding and deepen our friendship and cooperation.”

If some of these comments by Mr. Gates do raise the spectre of U.S. “concerns,” he has also echoed General Cao’s observations about “cooperation” to indicate that the two sides are eager to avoid a new cold war. But will Washington rise above its “concerns” which are now so obviously centred on check-mating Beijing’s further ascendance as a globally influential power? Will there be a shift, a la George Kennan, from “containment” to “conciliation”?

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