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From military fatigues to civilian clothes

President Pervez Musharraf is set to make the full transition from a military to a civilian ruler on Thursday, when he will be sworn in to his new term. He has handed over the reins of the Pakistan Army to his handpicked successor, General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani. The question now is whether the civilian Musharraf can walk the country’s political minefield unaided by a military uniform and how much the army will help its ex-boss retain his grip on Pakistan in his new av atar.

As a civilian President, Gen.(retd.) Musharraf evidently sees himself as a bridge between the army and the new political dispensation that will run the government after the January 8 general elections. In an interview in early October, before his presidential election, President Musharraf said he envisaged a “troika” of President, Prime Minister and Army chief governing Pakistan. His remarks were based on the assumption that the legal approval for his new term from the Supreme Court, which had begun to shy away from open confrontation with the government, was only a formality. His understanding with Benazir Bhutto, leader of the Pakistan People’s Party, was falling in place and would lead to a power-sharing arrangement in Islamabad to the satisfaction of the U.S. But aside from the imposition of the Emergency, he reckoned without Nawaz Sharif coming back to Pakistan.

The dramatic return of Mr. Sharif has upended many of his calculations. Mr. Sharif considers Gen. Musharraf, who ousted him in 1999 in a bloodless coup, as enemy number one and his presence in Pakistan along with Ms Bhutto will be an important determinant in President Musharraf’s political future.

President Musharraf’s relations with Ms Bhutto began to sour in the aftermath of the bomb attacks on her October 18 comeback parade following her allegations against key members of the Musharraf regime. They nosedived after the imposition of the Emergency, as she announced a break-up of their negotiations. Her anti-Musharraf rhetoric softened only after the visit of U.S. Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte, who urged reconciliation among “moderates” and praised President Musharraf, even as he asked him to lift the Emergency. Even if Ms Bhutto sees President Musharraf as her best bet for a return to power, with Mr. Sharif back and general elections just a month away, she can hardly afford to abandon all the opposition space to her main political rival.

One of the most extraordinary things about Pakistan in the last eight months has been the astonishing speed of political developments sweeping the country. It was that way with Mr. Sharif’s return too. Though evidently brewing for some time, the chain of events that began with a sudden trip by Pervez Musharraf to Saudi Arabia last Tuesday culminated just five days later in a tumultuous reception to the former Prime Minister at the international airport in Lahore.

By most accounts, President Musharraf tried his best to prevent Mr. Sharif from coming back but the Saudis were no longer willing to hold him in a Jeddah palace after Ms Bhutto’s return to Pakistan. The Saudi royal family was feeling the heat of the Pakistani criticism of its role in the September 10 drama, the day of Mr. Sharif’s aborted arrival in Islamabad and his re-exile to Jeddah. As a senior leader of the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) said, it became a “foreign policy compulsion” for the Saudi government to return Mr. Sharif home. It did not want to be seen as taking sides in the country’s political crisis.

For President Musharraf, much will depend on how the two political heavyweights — Mr. Sharif and Ms Bhutto — now play their cards. A joint opposition boycott of the elections, led by the PML (N) and the PPP, could rob the process and President Musharraf of all legitimacy. But it seems more likely that the political parties will contest the elections. No one wants to give the other party a walkover. Even if all opposition parties, including the PPP, were united on boycotting, they would be concerned about leaving the field open to the PML (Q), the Muttahida Quami Movement, which is another Musharraf ally, and the Jamiat-e-Ulema Islami led by Maulana Fazlur Rehman, part of the opposition but a closet ally of the regime.

If there is no boycott, President Musharraf would be concerned that a free and fair election may well bring Mr. Sharif’s party back to power. His stock was up much before his arrival for not doing any deal with the regime in contrast to the PPP leader, and his return has re-energised his party and injected new dynamism in the Punjab political scene. Even though he came back to Pakistan with the evident co-operation of the government, the so-called “deal” between him and the Saudi government for his return has not dented his anti-regime image. And eager to prove he did no “deal” for his return, Mr. Sharif touched all the right populist chords upon his arrival.

“I tested the atom bomb in spite of American pressure not to do so. Musharraf would not have been able to do that,” he declared to the crowds lining the route from the airport to his first stop, the shrine of Data Ganj Baksh in old Lahore. “In my time, a roti cost 50 paise, now it costs three rupees; in my time atta cost six rupees a kg, it costs 20 rupees now.”

If, as the speculation goes, the Saudis persuaded the former Prime Minister to agree to steer clear of “confrontational” politics, and do nothing to endanger the “stability” of Pakistan, Mr. Sharif is setting his own rules on how far to go.

At his first press conference on returning home, Mr. Sharif sounded restrained against the man who ousted him in October 1999, and spoke of reconciliation and putting the national interest above the interests of individuals. But he also questioned the legality of President Musharraf’s new term, said a change of clothes would not make him a legitimate ruler, and demanded the restoration of the judges sacked after the imposition of the Emergency on November 3.

Mr. Sharif’s return has also started off rumblings within the PML (Q), a party of those who dumped him to form the pro-Musharraf government after the 2002 elections. Many of them would argue that they were abandoned to their devices when Mr. Sharif left for Saudi Arabia in 2000. But now that he is back, there is said to be a long list of people waiting to go back to the parent party.

There are two possible scenarios in which President Musharraf may still emerge on top of the heap. The first is a hung parliament, in which neither Mr. Sharif nor Ms Bhutto will have the upper hand. One of the many theories around the PML (N) leader’s return is that President Musharraf wanted him back in order to blunt a possible victory at the hustings for the PPP. In turn, the PML (Q) will divide the PML (N) votes, provided it stays intact. After all, Mr. Sharif has returned too late and the election schedule allows barely three weeks for a campaign. The second is a PML (Q) victory, which sounds impossible right now, but is not unachievable if the state machinery puts its mind on it.

The Army’s role may depend on which of these scenarios eventually prevails. For someone removed by a general, Mr. Sharif comes with a unique advantage. He enjoys greater credibility with the Pakistan army, the final arbiter of Pakistani politics, than Ms Bhutto who it considers pro-western, not Islamic or nationalistic enough and unreliable. Reportedly never too happy about the National Reconciliation Ordinance that excused her from corruption charges, the Army was confirmed in its fears when she dropped the ball and entered into an open confrontation with the regime after her arrival.

One view is that the new chief would want to extricate the institution from politics as soon as possible and leave a civilian President Musharraf to make his own way out of a mess that is largely his creation, retreating to its role as a backseat driver.

Another view is that he would never have made the bold decision to shed his uniform — which he once called his “second skin” — were he not absolutely sure that he continues to enjoy the full confidence and backing of the Pakistan Army.

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