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Acid test for BJP dissident in Surat North

Manas Dasgupta

Outcome here will show whether voters have taken kindly to second rebellion

No BJP rebel has so far found favour with Gujarat electorate
Gajera and supporters are hoping to change
that trend

SURAT: Surat North may be just one of the 182 Assembly constituencies going to the polls in Gujarat. But this urban constituency in the art silk and diamond city is likely to prove an indicator of the overall results in the State. The fate of Dhirubhai Gajera, considered the “face” of BJP dissidents who have been accommodated in the Congress list, will be a pointer to whether the people have taken kindly to the second rebellion in the ruling party.

First revolt

The first rebellion led by Shankersinh Vaghela, now Union Textiles Minister, in 1995 met with disastrous consequences. The regional party he formed was trounced in the 1998 elections, forcing him to merge it with the Congress.

In Gujarat, a BJP stronghold, no one walking out of the party has so far found favour with the electorate. But Mr. Gajera and his supporters are confident.

Most of the dissidents are in the fray in Amreli district in the Saurashtra region. Mr. Gajera, who also hails from Amreli but is settled in Surat, is one of the very few BJP dissidents contesting on the Congress symbol outside the region.

A three-time winner from the constituency, he was among the first few BJP legislators who openly revolted against Chief Minister Narendra Modi. Mr. Gajera, who won with a comfortable margin of over 12,000 votes in the 2002 elections, will now have to convince his own voters that the Congress, which he criticised all these years, is better than the BJP.

Muslim voters, traditionally Congress supporters, number about 26,000 among an electorate of 2.04 lakh in the constituency. They are yet to accept Mr. Gajera as a Congressman. So, leaders of the community feel that the Muslim turnout could be less. This could affect the result in North Surat.

Patels, deciding factor

The deciding factor, however, will be the attitude of the 45,000-odd Saurashtra Patel voters who were instrumental in setting up the Sardar Patel Utkarsha Samiti, the platform created by BJP dissidents in Surat to rebel against Mr. Modi four months ago. With the Samiti later shifting its attention to other communities, including Kolis and Brahmins, to make the organisation broad-based, a large number of Patels felt alienated and switched their loyalty back to the BJP and Mr. Modi.

Both Mr. Gajera and his BJP rival, Nanubhai Vanani, former president of the Surat Diamond Traders’ Association, are Patels and a division in the votes of the community is expected. Mr. Vanani is contesting in Surat North for the first time. He contested unsuccessfully twice from Botad in Bhavnagar district, his home constituency, in the 1990s.

Congress’ position

Mr. Gajera has not been able to carry many BJP workers with him to the Congress. And the Congress, not a strong force in urban Gujarat, is yet to fully galvanise its machinery to help out its candidate in his prestigious battle. An advantage to Mr. Gajera is his performance as MLA during the last three terms.

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