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Behind the sparkle in Gujarat

— Photo: Arunangsu Roy Chowdhury

Part of the crowd at an election rally attended by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in Rajkot in the Saurashtra region on Friday.

If propaganda alone were to decide the verdict in Gujarat, Narendra Modi would have a walkover. His inner circle calls him a one-man marauding army. The spokesperson of the Bharatiya Janata Party, Yamal Vyas, compares him to Amitabh Bachchan — invincible, way above his peer group, and the only issue in this election.

The Congress, by contrast, has the look of the classic loser. The party is in glorious disarray, its leaders have little recall value, its philosophy is a mish-mash of knee-jerk Hindutva and secularism, it has made a mess of ticket allotment, and above all, it has to contend with the omnipotent, omnipresent Mr. Modi, who taunts and berates it constantly, forcing it at every point to follow the agenda he has set.

Mr. Modi’s crack team of loyal officers and select partymen (the Chief Minister has completely bypassed the larger party structure) has the Congress constantly playing catch-up. Take the election campaign. The BJP’s slogan, “Jeetega Gujarat” (Gujarat will win), is breathtakingly audacious. Only a man so over-weeningly self-important as Mr. Modi can equate Gujarat’s victory with his own victory. Yet the slogan works brilliantly on the ground. Of course, should Mr. Modi actually lose, the joke would be on him with Gujarat seeming to emerge victorious from his defeat!

The irony obviously did not strike the Congress which responded to “Jeetega Gujarat” with its own “Chak de Gujarat” (get going, Gujarat). The imitation does not have the resonance of the original. Besides, Jeetega presupposes victory. Chak de, as Mr. Modi delights in pointing out to his audiences, is an exhortation to victory in an impossible situation. For Mr. Modi, there cannot be a better admission of the Congress’ lack of confidence than this. “By God, the Congress is finding the going tough,” he says at his rallies.

On the publicity front too, the Congress has taken a beating, allowing itself to be led by Mr. Modi, and indeed responding to Hindutva with Hindutva, rather than outlining its own, clear vision. If the BJP placed ads in newspapers accusing the Congress of protecting Mohammad Afzal, the Congress placed counter ads accusing the BJP of providing a safe passage to Masood Azhar. If the BJP spoke of Godhra, the Congress reminded its rival of L.K. Advani’s trip to Pakistan to pay homage to Mohammad Ali Jinnah: “Where was Advani when Gujarat was reeling under floods? Bowing before Jinnah’s mazar.”

Team Modi has worked hard on his image, assiduously converting his liabilities into assets and projecting him as a super hero. As Shashi Ranjan Yadav, who manages the BJP’s election website explained, “Mr. Modi has been blamed for being arrogant and hot-headed. In reality, his arrogance is his selling point.”

The Modi campaign has also drawn up a booth-management strategy, involving the appointment of walis (guardians), to oversee individual booths and ensure maximum voter turnout. The party is conscious that for all their celebration of Mr. Modi, upper and middle class Gujaratis are not enthusiastic voters.

If the Congress has a strategy to counter this blitz, it is not immediately apparent. In September this year, the party had mounted a huge anti-Modi offensive jointly with BJP rebels affiliated to the former Chief Minister, Keshubhai Patel. The impact of this was felt across Saurashtra, Gujarat’s largest geographical region and Mr. Patel’s home ground. Today there is little evidence of this synergy. This is so in part because the Congress has dissociated itself from Gordhan Zadaphia, Minister of State for Home during the 2002 pogrom and the financial and organisational muscle behind the anti-Modi campaign. And in part because of internal discontent arising from the allotment of Congress ticket to some of the BJP rebels. Last week, irate Congresspersons smashed the party office in Ahmedabad. And in Amreli district in Saurashtra, once the epicentre of the anti-Modi revolt, the Congress and the BJP rebels are in a state of war.

The BJP quotient in the party has also meant that the Congress must put up with open Hindutva-speak. And this in a party already squirming over not being able to discuss the 2002 anti-Muslim pogrom. On the campaign trail, BJP rebels-turned-Congress candidates can be heard slamming Mr. Modi for his alleged renunciation of Hindutva. Mr. Zadaphia, who remains the mentor of the rebel group, told The Hindu that the fight in Gujarat was between Moditva and Hindutva.

So is it all over for the Congress in Gujarat? No. If the Modi campaign is dazzlingly savvy and the support of his fan following deafeningly loud, the Congress has arithmetic on its side. In the surcharged atmosphere of the 2002 election, a section of the Congress’ traditional voters, especially tribals and Dalits, had voted for the BJP. Today they seem inclined to retrace their steps, though admittedly the Congress has scored a self-goal by prevaricating on the notification of Tribal Right Acts. Just how much damage this will inflict on the Congress is not clear. But one thing is certain. Tribals and Dalits are done with the BJP. In a State where tribals account for 14.8 per cent and Dalits another seven per cent, the significance of this hardly needs stressing. In addition, the Congress can count on the support of a section of the Kolis, estimated at 22 per cent, and Leuva Patels, the largest sub-group of the roughly 16-18 per cent upper caste Patel community.

What of Muslims? Will they go with the BJP, preferring its open antagonism to the Congress’ hypocritical silence over their plight? Unlikely, though there are reports to this effect. Muslims may despair of the Congress but they should know better than to seek refuge in the arms of Mr. Modi, who still revels in the 2002 violence, and for whom Muslims are nothing if not inflammable campaign material. The Modi campaign, which started off talking development, has progressively turned communal. The worst example of this being the Chief Minister’s brazen defence of the encounter killing of Sohrabuddin Sheikh.

Indeed, the transition from development to communalism is evidence that for all its outward swagger, the Modi campaign is really quietly nervous. The Chief Minister is hobbled by dissidence just as the Congress is. Perhaps more so. In as many as 50 constituencies, powerful rebels have queered the pitch for the BJP. Mr. Modi’s macho image, lovingly showcased by his managers, and lapped up by his admirers, has also alienated him from his own party and the larger sangh parivar, not to mention vast sections of the administration.

It could have been advantage Congress, except it has no one, save Sonia Gandhi, to fight on its behalf. In the 2004 Lok Sabha election, the Congress staged a remarkable comeback in Gujarat — primarily because Mr. Modi was not the focus of that election. Today he is the election issue. But tragically for the Congress, it has neither a programme nor a powerful enough leader to take on the challenge.

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