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Russia heading for power reconfiguration

The parliamentary election held in Russia on December 2 could pave the way for dramatic changes in the Russian power configuration.

The main pro-Kremlin party, United Russia, swept the poll, winning 315 seats in the 450-seat State Duma. This gives the party more than a two-third majority in the lower house, which is enough not only to adopt legislation but also to amend the Consti tution.

For the first time in Russia’s post-Soviet history, the incumbent President directly associated himself with one of the political parties contesting the election. Vladimir Putin headed the candidate list of United Russia, even though he was not a party member. Until now, both Mr. Putin and his predecessor Boris Yeltsin preferred to stay above the political fray to sustain the image of national leaders of all Russians.

The Russian Constitution does not forbid the President from joining a party or its election ticket, though it bans him from taking a seat in Parliament. Explaining his decision to support United Russia, Mr. Putin said he wanted to help the party win the election in order to “make the next legislature workable” and “help the executive carry out all its plans.”

The Duma election confirmed Mr. Putin’s huge popularity. The Russian leader is credited with pulling Russia back from the brink of collapse and restoring its stature as a global power. United Russia and two other parties which had pledged loyalty to the President — the Liberal Democratic Party of ultra nationalist leader Vladimir Zhirinovsky and Just Russia of Upper House Speaker Sergei Mironov — have gained nearly 90 per cent of seats in the lower house. The Communists, the only opposition party that passed the seven-per cent threshold to get into the Duma, with less than 12 per cent of the votes, will fill the remaining seats.

While it is true that Mr. Putin’s immense popularity boosted United Russia’s rating, he did not really have to head the party’s ticket to ensure a loyal majority in the new Duma. United Russia was expected to win over 55 per cent of the votes anyway, and together with the two other pro-Kremlin parties would still have the crucial two-third majority.

Mr. Putin’s move was clearly linked to his plans after he steps down next year. Under the Constitution, he cannot seek a third consecutive term in the presidential election scheduled for March 2. He faces the difficult task of ensuring stability and continuity of the political regime under a new President. In other words, how to stay after he goes.

It is a daunting task that defied all Soviet and Russian leaders. To begin with, none of them let go of power of his own will (Yeltsin of course was an exception but then it was his failing health that forced him to resign ahead of his term). Most Soviet-era leaders died in their shoes. Nikita Khrushchev was removed in a Politbureau conspiracy and he spent his last years under virtual house arrest. Mikhail Gorbachev lost power through an even more vicious plot when Yeltsin conspired with the leaders of Ukraine and Belarus behind the last Soviet President’s back to disband the Soviet Union in order to remove his archrival from the Kremlin. Whatever their fate, all previous leaders saw their policies rejected and allies banished.

Mr. Putin has categorically dismissed the option persistently urged on him by his subordinates and many public figures — to amend the Constitution to allow him to stay on as President. Opinion polls showed that two-thirds of Russians would vote for him if he agreed to contest. However, he wants to set a historical precedent by becoming the first Russian President to leave the post strictly in line with the Constitution. He said he would not tinker with democracy. “I have no intention to reduce everything I’ve done to zero,” he said at a meeting with foreign experts on Russia known as Valdai Club in October.

At the same time, Mr. Putin wants to make sure that his successor neither revises his policies nor launches re-privatisation or dumps his team after he leaves the Kremlin. He said he did not want the hard-won political stability and strong economic growth to be frittered away. “I can’t say: ‘Okay, guys, I’ve done my job and I’m off. You can do as you like now.’ There’s no way I’ll do this,” Mr. Putin said last year.

Mr. Putin seems to have found a way to have it both ways, leave office and keep his grip on power, by becoming the leader of the ruling party. Throwing his lot with United Russia in the Duma election could be the first step in this game plan.

“If people vote for United Russia, whose list I lead, it means they trust me and I will have the moral right to hold those in the Duma and the Cabinet responsible for the implementation of the objectives that have been identified so far,” the President said ahead of the Duma vote.

Mr. Putin sought a vote of confidence and a popular mandate to influence Russian politics after his retirement, and the response was overwhelming. He can now convert this resounding support into power to promote a chosen successor and control his policies once he is installed in the Kremlin.

The presidential election campaign has already been kicked off in Russia. United Russia said it would nominate its candidate for President later this month. Mr. Putin has kept the name of his chosen successor close to himself, but the support of the incumbent will guarantee him victory at the polls, according to opinion polls. Whoever steps into his shoes, Mr. Putin stressed, will not be able to veer off course.

The most effective way for Mr. Putin to retain influence would be to head United Russia, experts agreed. Mr. Putin may either become Speaker in the new Duma or just be the leader of the ruling party. In any case he will be able not only to control the new administration but also to pursue his larger agenda of promoting multiparty democracy as a solution to Russia’s biggest problem — corrupt and omnipotent bureaucracy that hampers economic growth.

Russian bureaucracy has dramatically gained in strength and omnipotence under Mr. Putin as he pushed to restore the authority of the federal centre over provinces and cut short separatism that blossomed under Mr. Yeltsin. In his annual state-of-the-nation address two years ago, he described the hydra-headed civil service as a “closed and arrogant caste which perceives state service as just another kind of business.”

“We have no plans to hand over control of the country to inefficient and corrupt bureaucracy,” the Russian President pledged. His attempt to overcome the bureaucratic hurdles to economic modernisation by putting his trusted aides in charge of major state-controlled corporations has led to the rise of rival power clans in the Kremlin. Their fighting over assets and influence has spilled across the Kremlin walls posing a credible risk of destabilisation after Mr. Putin’s retirement. This convinced the President of the urgent need to promote political competition.

“I’ve been thinking a lot about how Russia should be governed after 2008. I see no solution to the problem of stable development of the country other than democracy and a multiparty system,” Mr. Putin told the Valdai Club academics. He made it clear he favoured a two-party system: If United Russia fails to live up to the people’s expectations, Just Russia or some other social-democratic party may take over.

The parliamentary system is Mr. Putin’s long-term vision for Russia. He said it would take another decade or so for “normal political parties” to emerge. “In a mid-term historical perspective Russia will need a strong presidential authority,” Mr. Putin told the Valdai Club meeting.

What can and must be done immediately, according to Mr. Putin, is to decentralise power. “I’m worried that too much depends today on one man [President],” he said. “I want to decentralise authority.”

Mr. Putin’s leadership of United Russia can help redistribute power from the President to Parliament. The Constitution gives Parliament enough powers to balance off the executive. The State Duma endorses the appointment of the Prime Minister and most Ministers, approves the budget and can impeach the President. Until now, these powers have remained on paper as parliamentary majority was controlled from the Kremlin. Once this control passes to the ex-President, the legislature will become a truly independent branch of authority. This will reconfigure the entire power setup in Russia. And chairmanship in the ruling party is a perfect platform for Mr. Putin to run for President again in 2012.

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