The Hindu : Front Page : Central districts hold key to power

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Saturday, Dec 15, 2007
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Central districts hold key to power

Manas Dasgupta

Congress hopeful of winning over tribals
BJP confident of doing well in urban areas

VADODARA: The 43 seats in the five central Gujarat districts — Dahod, the Panchamahals, Kaira, Anand and Vadodara — at stake in the second and final phase of the Assembly elections on Sunday may tilt the balance in favour of either the Bharatiya Janata Party or the Congress in the State. Traditionally a Congress stronghold, the central districts, which were the worst-affected in the 2002 communal riots — the epicentre being Godhra, Panchamahals district headquarters — demonstrated a total swing in favour of the BJP in the last elections. Five years later, have the communal sentiments evaporated?

Going by his campaign style, Chief Minister Narendra Modi is still banking on the strong communal sentiments that helped the BJP win 38 seats in these districts in the last elections. The Congress got only five. In 1998, the Congress bagged 31 seats and the BJP 12.

Shift to Hindutva

In the central and north Gujarat regions, Mr. Modi changed campaign tack, from development to Sohrabuddin and Gujarat pride, to revive the “2002 spirit.” He repeatedly tried to provoke the Centre into taking action against him for the 2002 riots, saying “Hang me if you have the guts.”

The Congress lost its most-trusted votebank — tribals — to the BJP in the last elections. Allegedly provoked by the Vishwa Hindu Parishad, the tribals not only actively participated in the communal riots but also overwhelmingly voted for the BJP. None of the 12 seats reserved for the Scheduled Tribes in Dahod and Panchamahals districts went to the Congress.

Now the Congress is confident of winning them over, mainly because “2007 is not 2002,” as a senior leader put it. The tribals feel that Mr. Modi has not kept his word, and many cases of their alleged involvement in the riots are still pending. Because of his differences with local VHP leaders and the Supreme Court’s directive for reinvestigation of about 2,000 riot-related cases, the Chief Minister could not help the tribals.

But Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s promise to have a “re-look” into the riot-related cases if the Congress is voted to power may not serve the party’s cause in the region.

No political consistency

The BJP is confident of retaining the dozen-odd urban seats in the five districts, but both rivals are unsure of rural voters. For the past 10 years or so, the central region has not demonstrated any political consistency. After having been mauled by the BJP in the last Assembly elections, the Congress regained a considerable hold in the Lok Sabha elections, winning 29 Assembly segments there compared to the BJP’s 14. But its happiness was short-lived as two years later, the BJP dominated in the panchayat elections. The Congress fared particularly badly in the tribal-dominated Dahod and Panchamahals districts.

Another issue in the campaign now is which party has given more importance to the region. Anti-Modi forces point out that he did not give it adequate representation in his Cabinet, having nominated only two Ministers of State.

But the Congress has appointed Bharat Solanki, MP from Anand, who is from this region, the State unit chief. Union Textile Minister Shankarsinh Vaghela (Kapadvanj), Union Minister of State for Petroleum Dinsha Patel (Nadiad) and Union Minister of State for Railways Naranbhai (Chhota-Udepur) are all from the region.

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