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Change of guard in ANC

The emphatic victory of Jacob Zuma, deputy president of the African National Congress, over Thabo Mbeki, the incumbent party president, in a bitterly contested election to the office of the ANC president appears to put him firmly in line to succeed Mr. Mbeki as President of the Republic in 2009. For the record, Mr. Zuma secured 2,329 votes against Mr. Mbeki’s 1,505 at the organisation’s 52nd national conference at Polokwane. Further, all the other five senior p ositions in the ANC were won by equally emphatic margins by Zuma supporters. However, Mr. Mbeki will remain head of state for another two years with diminished political authority perhaps, but still controlling the government structures. In June 2005, following the conviction on charges of bribery and fraud of his financial adviser, Mr. Zuma was sacked as South Africa’s Deputy President by President Mbeki. Mr. Zuma’s troubles deepened when he himself was charged with corruption and then, in December 2005, with rape. The first case was struck off the rolls and he was fully cleared in the second case when the court dismissed the rape charge on the ground that the sexual act with a family guest at his Johannesburg home was consensual.

The corruption case initially thrown out may yet be revived — giving substance to the view of Zuma supporters that constitutional state structures are being misused to persecute him. Less than two years after his political career seemed to have reached its nadir, he has bounced back to take control of the ANC — the fountainhead of political power in South Africa. The reason appears to be the disillusionment of the ANC rank and file with the seemingly remote personality and persona of President Mbeki as also with his economic policies. Put briefly, the policy perspective of building capitalism, albeit with a strong black base, in place since mid-1996 has failed to inspire the mass of ANC supporters still locked in extreme deprivation and diminishment. This dissatisfaction was relentlessly articulated by the powerful Congress of South African Trade Unions and the South African Communist Party, both of whom stood firmly by Mr. Zuma through his recent political ordeals. What is however not clear is whether he, as much an architect of these policies as Mr. Mbeki is, will want to, or will even be able to, make a break and craft policies more in tune with the aspirations of the majority. It is their deep discontent that has led to the fall of Mr. Mbeki in the organisation and, by inescapable inference, may also result in his becoming a lame-duck President for the remaining two years of his term.

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