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Rampur strike provokes new terror fears for 2008

Praveen Swami

Intelligence services fear renewed jihadi offensive in Jammu and Kashmir

Lull along LoC is deceptive: intelligence analysts
Lashkar working to a plan: experts

BARAMULLA (J&K): Shrouded by fog and diesel fumes, the highway from Srinagar to Baramulla bears a curious resemblance to New Delhi roads at rush hour.

For the first time in a decade and a half, much of the traffic is made up of buses and jeeps bearing tourists to winter resorts like Gulmarg — not just troops on their way to the Line of Control (LoC).

But Tuesday’s terror strike on a Central Reserve Police Force training facility in Rampur in Uttar Pradesh appears to vindicate what some intelligence analysts have been warning for months — that the apparent calm in Jammu and Kashmir and the lull along the LoC, both of which have led to claims that the long jihad in the State is drawing to a close, is deceptive.

Penetrating LoC defences

Intelligence estimates suggest that up to 300 terrorists — most of them battle-hardened Pakistani nationals — succeeded in penetrating LoC defences in 2007. But while these numbers suggest that more terrorists entered Jammu and Kashmir than were killed in counter-terrorist operations last year, a reversal of the trends since 2002, violence within the State has continued to decline.

Experts in the intelligence community believe that groups such as the Lashkar-e-Taiba, thought to be responsible for the Rampur strike, are working to a plan. “One objective is to provide infrastructure and support for the Islamist terror groups springing up elsewhere in India, and the second is to prepare for a major offensive before this year’s Assembly elections, an intelligence analyst told The Hindu.”

Aggressive rhetoric

These fears have been underlined by aggressive rhetoric emanating from the Lashkar leadership in Pakistan, which operates under the banner of a political-religious formation, the Jamaat-ud-Dawa. As Pakistan’s movement towards political meltdown accelerated last month, Lashkar leaders became increasingly vocal in their demands for a renewal of the jihad in Jammu and Kashmir.

At a December 11 address to his followers, the Lashkar’s overall religious and spiritual head, Hafiz Mohammad Saeed, argued that while “the founder of Pakistan, Mohammad Ali Jinnah, had referred to Kashmir as the ‘jugular vein of Pakistan’, the present rulers seem to be hell-bent on handing over our jugular vein to India with their own hands.”

In Dr. Saeed’s view, the waning jihad in Jammu and Kashmir was the outcome of the Pakistan “government’s imprudent policies after the 9/11 events, which dealt a severe blow to the confidence and trust of Kashmiri Muslims.” These policies made clear that “it was hopeless to expect any good from the current rulers.” None the less, “the Kashmiris will never compromise on their freedom.”

Dr. Saeed said a “plot is being hatched at the instigation of foreign powers to roll back the Kashmir freedom movement.” Part of this plot, he claimed, involved committing Pakistani troops against Taliban forces “to please the enemies of Islam.” In another speech to Lashkar supporters, he said these policies succeeded because “Muslims neglect Dawa [propagation of Islam] and jihad”

Lashkar leaders have linked their position on Jammu and Kashmir to a larger critique of President Pervez Musharraf’s policies. On December 18, Abdul Rehman Makki, the Lashkar’s second-in-command, told worshippers at Lahore’s Jamia Masjid al-Qudsia: “Befriending the United States and India and being servile to them is not the solution to Pakistan’s problems.”

“Unjust systems”

Mr. Makki, who has been named a suspect in terror investigations, argued: “The Jews and Christians want to exterminate the Muslims to preserve their own unjust systems and laws.” In a similar vein, several second-rung Lashkar leaders present at Dr. Saeed’s December 12 meeting insisted that “every infidel country is hatching conspiracies against Islam.”

Lashkar leaders Hafiz Abdul Salam bin-Mohammad, Sheikh Maulana Mehmood ul-Hassan and Mr. Makki were reported saying Pakistan’s Swat and Federally-Administered Tribal Areas “are heading towards a true Islamic system. But the enemies of Islam have labelled this a rebellion.”

“Jihad,” one speaker said, “has brightened the future of the Muslim community.”

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