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Close race for Democrats, Republicans

Des Moines (IOWA): Republican and Democratic contenders to replace George Bush in the White House are set to go into the first real test of public opinion with final polls showing both contests in a dead heat. Tens of thousands of volunteers scoured Iowa on Wednesday for potential voters as the candidates issued their final appeals in one of the most open and hotly contested campaigns of the last 100 years.

“Both races are getting tighter as the caucuses get closer,” the pollster John Zogby said.

His poll, which is updated daily, showed Barack Obama gaining 2 per cent overnight and Hillary Clinton dropping 2 per cent, putting the Democratic frontrunners both on 28 per cent. John Edwards polled 26 per cent, which, given the margin of error, amounts to a dead heat.

The Republican race is proving equally unpredictable, with Mitt Romney eating into Mike Huckabee’s lead. The poll put Huckabee on 28 per cent, Romney on 26 per cent and John McCain and Fred Thompson both on 12 per cent. Mr. McCain has done little campaigning in Iowa, concentrating instead on New Hampshire, which holds its primary next week and where he is enjoying a resurgence.

Polls suggest many potential caucus-goers will make up their minds on Thursday night.

In her final advert before the Iowa caucus, aired on Wednesday, Ms. Clinton said: “After all the town meetings, the pie and coffee, it all comes down to this: who is ready to be President and ready to start solving the big challenges we face on day one?”

She added: “I know you have waited a long time for a President who could hear you and see you. I would like to be that President. So I ask you to caucus for me tomorrow. Put on your coats and call up a friend and help me change America.”

The question is whether the excitement generated by the campaign, with the potential to put the first woman or first African-American in the White House, will translate into voter turnout.

Mr. Obama has a strong appeal among young first-time voters, who in previous caucuses have often expressed enthusiasm for a candidate but failed to turn out on the night. Ms. Clinton and Mr. Obama’s campaign teams have disputed projections about the number of new voters likely to turn out, with the former predicting lower numbers than the latter. The turnout could be boosted by the weather. A blizzard, as in the 1972 caucuses, or even a sudden drop in temperature (always likely in Iowa), could prove as decisive as voter appeal — but the national weather service has predicted a benign night for these parts; around the freezing mark, but dry.

Volunteers from the Clinton campaign will salt roads and dig out snow to help get supporters to the caucus.

All the candidates began campaigning early on Wednesday, but none as early as Mr. Edwards, who made his first appearance at 2.15 a.m. at the home of a volunteer in Creston, and followed it up with a pancake breakfast at 5.15 a.m. with supporters in Centerville.

The candidates have spent millions of dollars in the State, recruiting huge staffs and making regular visits as part of campaigning that has been under way for at least 12 months, building up to Thursday night.

Mr. Obama has 37 field offices around the State, Ms. Clinton 34 and Mr. Edwards 25. Thousands of volunteers from other States have arrived to help with the final push.

On Monday the Edwards campaign sent 1,000 canvassers to 48 locations; it has 51 phone banks in the State, and hundreds of volunteers. The campaign has also posted and hand-delivered 200,000 copies of an 80-page book outlining his policies.

Asked to compare this campaign with Al Gore’s in 2000, Steve Hillebrand, Mr. Obama’s deputy campaign director, echoed Mr. Fischer: “This is 300 times more intense.” — © Guardian Newspapers Limited, 2008

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