Opinion - Editorials   

Obama-Huckabee surprise

Even though the results of the January 3 Iowa caucuses may be considered upsets, it would be a mistake to conclude that the shape of the contest for the Democratic and Republican nominations for the 2008 presidential election has been settled after voters in one of the smaller States became the first to indicate their preferences. In one sense, the outcome has been unsettling since it undermined any notion that Hillary Rodham Clinton’s nomination as her party’s candidate was unstoppable. Ms Clinton will now have to fight hard for the rest of the primary season to snatch the lead from Barack Hussein Obama who beat her in Iowa with a margin of 37.6 per cent to 29.5 per cent. There is a fair chance that the Democratic race will soon become a two-person affair. Although John Edwards with 29.8 per cent pipped Ms Clinton to second place, it does not appear that his showing is good enough for him to build momentum before the January 8 New Hampshire primaries. Unlike Mr. Edwards, the former First Lady has the name recognition, the organisational structure, and the financial muscle to take the setback in her stride. Whether she has the capacity to cope with the politics of hope unleashed by Mr. Obama is the key question. Through his first-place finish in a State dominated by white rural voters, the man who aspires to become the first African-American President has demonstrated he can tap into what appears to be a widespread yearning for change.

On the Republican side, the Iowa results have left the picture somewhat murkier. Mike Huckabee beat the putative front-runner, Mitt Romney, by a margin of 34.4 per cent to 25.4 per cent, but is not expected to carry the momentum forward into New Hampshire. Mr. Huckabee’s victory is attributable largely to the strong support he got from evangelical Christians who are estimated to make up as much as 60 per cent of the caucus-goers. Social and religious conservatives will constitute only a small proportion of voters in the January 8 primary, in which national security and fiscal concerns are expected to be the main issues. However, while Mr. Romney might be free of a Huckabee challenge in New Hampshire, he might be hard pressed to fend off John McCain and Rudolph Giuliani, both of whom largely stayed out of the Iowa campaign. Mr. McCain, the fourth-placed finisher, has reason to regard New Hampshire as his favourite hunting ground. With a bunch of primaries and caucuses scheduled to take place before February 25, the next few weeks are likely to witness desperate fights within the Democratic and Republican parts of the presidential field.

Printer friendly page  
Send this article to Friends by E-Mail

Stories in this Section

A preventable tragedy
Obama-Huckabee surprise
Pakistan People’s Party and “Mr. 10 per cent”
Gujarat elections: some reflections
Barack Obama’s big moment
Benazir murder may isolate Islamists
A united plea to ‘save Kenya’
Corrections and clarifications
Shocking incident
Appalling

Copyright © 2008, The Hindu. Republication or redissemination of the contents of this screen are expressly prohibited without the written consent of The Hindu