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Will Spain go through second transition?

It was the biggest political upset Spain had witnessed since the death of General Francisco Franco in 1975. When the boyish 42-year-old socialist, Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, emerged the surprise winner in Spain’s 2004 general election in the aftermath of the March 11 Madrid bombings, critics dubbed him “Bambi” and “Babyface” predicting an era of “soft and shaky appeasement politics.” His supporters called him “el hombre tranquillo,” a man of Olympian calm who, they said, would govern not by confrontation as outgoing Conservative leader Jose Maria Aznar had done but by consensus quietly and without fuss.

Both predictions turned out to be incorrect. For while Prime Minister Zapatero has governed by what he himself describes as “buen talante,” a phrase that roughly translates as niceness or good humour, he has relentlessly pushed an agenda that has moved Spain decisively to the Left, bringing home the troops from Iraq, reducing the power of the Catholic Church, liberalising divorce laws and legislating in favour of women and homosexuals. He has also dared to re-examine Spain’s past under the Franco dictatorship, a deeply divisive subject, considered taboo these past 25 years and in doing so, he has polarised Spanish society. His youthful good looks and quiet charm hide a steely determination and the changes he has brought in have earned Mr. Zapatero the abiding ire of the Catholic Church, fanned the embers of revisionism and pro-Franco sentiment, and given fresh momentum to the country’s ultra-conservative right.

Two months before the general election, Spain’s deeply conservative Catholic Church and the right-wing Popular Party (Partido Popolar or PP) are hitting back with a vengeance. A mass rally held in Madrid over the New Year in “defence of the family” was attended by an estimated 160,000 people. Organised by the Catholic Church with the backing of the PP, the rally was attended by 50 cardinals, bishops and religious leaders with Pope Benedict XVI making an appearance by video link. Several prelates launched scathing attacks against legislation permitting gay marriages, new fast-track divorce laws and the introduction of a civics course in schools instead of compulsory catechism.

Cardinal Antonio Canizares of Toledo told the gathering that the government was “shaking the foundations of the family with its wicked and unjust laws.” Cardinal Agustin Garcia-Gasco of Valencia told the rally: “The culture of radical secularism is a fraud which only leads to abortions and fast-track divorces,” adding that “radical secularism” could dissolve democracy. The Archbishop of Madrid said the new laws violated the United Nations Human Rights charter.

Mr. Zapatero was quick to hit back, reminding his critics in no uncertain terms that the government’s policies were supported by “the immense majority.” “Everyone has the right to have rights, whatever their beliefs may be and whether they belong to a religion or not,” he said.

The Prime Minister has been able to push through his reform agenda because Spain has been riding a wave of unprecedented growth for the past decade. But now as the first signs of an economic slowdown appear on the horizon, the battle ahead might not be as easy. The country’s construction bubble is predicted to burst and as inflation and unemployment simultaneously rise, Prime Minister Zapatero finds himself on the defensive. His Socialist Party (PSOE) and the PP are running neck and neck in the polls. He could discover to his chagrin that Spaniards are willing to place economic questions before those of equality and social justice or righting the wrongs of history.

Mr. Zapatero exudes a confidence he might not entirely feel. Inflation went up much faster in December 2007 than in the preceding decade while the number of jobless workers rose for the third consecutive month, touching 5.2 per cent in 2007. The annual inflation rate, led by higher food and energy costs, meanwhile hit 4.3 per cent in December, its highest yearly reading since 1997.

That the Socialists are beginning to get nervous about their electoral chances is evident from the fact that Mr. Zapatero decided to shelve plans to modify Spain’s restrictive abortion law which allows termination of pregnancy only under very specific conditions. The law could undergo changes during his second term if he wins a convincing victory.

His critics say the Prime Minister’s niceness — he has managed to govern with a remarkable lightness of touch at the head of a minority government with external support from two small left-wing parties — masks a serious lack of vision or strategic thinking. But even his most corrosive detractors say he has tackled fundamental societal issues and changed the mindset in Spain setting the country on a path of rapid modernisation.

Mr. Zapatero’s agenda has been called the Second Transition — and it is an attempt to re-examine the across-the-board compromises that made possible Spain’s 1970s move from a dictatorship to democracy. Issues ranging from the structure of the state to social reform, modernisation, devolution of powers and the commemoration of the past that had been placed on the backburner are being examined, some for the very first time.

Mr. Zapatero himself tends to eschew ideological rhetoric, preferring to present himself as a manager and moderniser. “The programme of the modern Left is about sound economic management with a surplus on the public accounts, moderate taxes and a limited public sector … together with an extension of civil and social rights. That is the programme of the future,” he said. Not for him radical left-wing reform such as the introduction of a 35-hour-work week or clipping the wings of industry. He is content to allow market forces to manage the economy but feels it is imperative that a degree of equality be injected through legislation which he describes as “citizen socialism.”

Under Mr. Zapatero, ultra-conservative Spain, once considered the most restrictive and reactionary country in Europe, is now amongst its most liberal. Openly flouting the Church, Spain has allowed gay marriages, eliminating all legal distinctions between same-sex and heterosexual unions, and liberalised divorce laws. Women now hold half of all Cabinet posts including the job of Vice Prime Minister and enjoy legal protection from domestic violence. Compulsory religious education in state-run schools has been scrapped and in a final coup de grace, a legislative package pushed through that condemns Franco’s dictatorship, raising the hackles of the Catholic Church.

Although polls show that the Socialists have a slim lead over the Popular Party, they also indicate that Spaniards are evenly split on the question of which party is better equipped to handle the economy. The Socialists remain upbeat about the state of the Spanish economy, predicting it will still grow next year at a faster rate than the European Union average. “We can face with optimism the future of the Spanish economy, which is not at all in a phantasmagoric crisis as announced by the bad omens and prophets of doom of the Popular Party,” said the Socialist parliamentary spokesman, Diego Lopez Garrido.

Mr. Zapatero has promised to create up to two million new jobs if re-elected in March and predicted Spain’s public surplus would represent 1.8 per cent of gross domestic product in 2007, the same level as in the previous year. Spain is only one of a handful of EU nations to post a public surplus. The government argues that its existence has allowed it to expand spending on social benefits such as rent subsidies for youths and higher old-age pensions.

But the opposition was relentless in its attacks. “The economic crisis has broken out,” crowed the right-wing daily ABC on its front page, while opposition PP leader Mariano Rajoy vowed to quickly unveil a package of economic reforms aimed at “reviving the economy” if elected on March 9.

Two months ahead of the general elections, the PSOE defended its policies and vowed not to “take any step backwards” in defending individual freedoms. The Socialist government argues that the promotion of secular values is key to the modernisation of Spain, which has undergone a liberal transformation in the three decades since the death of right-wing dictator General Franco.

For the moment at least, the Socialist Party appears safe and likely to win a second term. But even if it fails to win, it is unlikely the conservatives will roll back the reforms it has introduced. Two-thirds of the Spanish population supports same sex marriages and an overwhelming majority feels it is now time to debunk the past, untangle the church from the state and move into the 21st century through greater devolution of powers and autonomy bordering on federalism.

Mr. Zapatero himself argues that “Spain is a country that cannot be understood through old paradigms or governed by the traditional routine” and that future strength will emerge from a decentralised and flexible, not rigid and centralised, state. Whether he wins or loses, the Spanish Socialist Party under his leadership has shown that it is possible to have responsible and innovative responses to the challenges raised by globalisation, bucking the trend within Europe to look inwards.

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