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Little chance of success

The United States President George W. Bush must be out of touch with reality if he believes that he will be able to persuade Israelis and Palestinians to reach a peace agreement before he leaves office in January 2009. Mr. Bush does not even appear to have realised that the deal he outlined during his visit to West Asia could well aggravate the problem. On merits, the proposals put forward are not outlandish. After years of negotiations, it seems very likely that the borders of a Palestinian state will be based on, but not be identical to, the armistice line that prevailed between 1948 and 1967. There is also little chance that Israel will allow Palestinian refugees to return in large numbers to its territories. But, in highlighting these two points while refusing to comment on the future of Jerusalem and the West Bank settlements, Mr. Bush strengthened the impression that he can see the dispute only from the Israeli perspective. As Palestinian commentators have observed, the U.S. President, in effect, reiterated the four “No’s” that have underpinned the Zionist state’s approach to the negotiations: no reaffirmation of the 1967 border; no return of refugees; no dismantlement of settlements; and no sharing of Jerusalem. A peace plan presented in this format is hardly likely to be welcomed wholeheartedly by the Palestinian masses.

Israel’s Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and the Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas have of course decided to proceed on the basis of the Bush plan. What other choice did they have? The current stalemate is so untenable that violence could break out any time on the scale witnessed in the early 2000s. Mr. Olmert and Mr. Abbas have to create an impression that they are moving forward. But both leaders have scant popular support and will find it very difficult to arrive at an agreement that deals adequately with all contentious issues. While the various plans drawn up over the years did have much in common, the two sides were not able to clinch a final settlement even when the leadership on either side was strong. Under present circumstances, Israelis and Palestinians are not likely to reconcile their differences unless pressured by the international community. The Arab League has put forward a plan that offers Israel an opportunity for integrating into the region if it renders justice to the Palestinians. The U.S. too is supposed to be working together with the European Union, Russia, and the United Nations. However, Mr. Bush has neither taken their help nor thrown the full weight of his own country behind his peace proposals.

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