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McCain vs Hillary?

America’s Democratic party belied Super Tuesday expectations by failing to settle who would be its nominee for the presidential contest of November 2008. While John McCain established a handsome and apparently unbeatable lead in the race for the nomination of the Republican Party, on the other side of the political field Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama were going neck and neck in the delegate count. Mr. Obama actually won a larger number of primaries on February 5 but Ms Clinton cantered home in the delegate-rich States of California, New York, and New Jersey. She will be delighted with her Massachusetts triumph considering that the backing of Senators Edward Kennedy and John Kerry failed to give Mr. Obama any major advantage. While Ms Clinton appears to have a firm grip on the party’s stronghold in the northeast, she will envy Mr. Obama’s surge in Illinois and other mid-western States. This region, which was Republican-leaning in the past, could come into decisive play in the November presidential election. Mr. Obama has beaten Ms Clinton 4-2 in the nomination contests held so far in the States of the old Confederacy. However, the results in the southern States reveal very little about either candidate’s potential to prevail over the Republican nominee. The G.O.P has a stranglehold over the region and the votes of African-Americans living below the Mason-Dixon Line, which are crucial in the Democratic nomination process, will not figure significantly in the presidential election. Super Tuesday might have failed to live up to its reputation of being a primary D-Day but this will only make the remaining contests a lot more interesting.

Mr. McCain might seem to be in clover after his near sweep of the delegate-rich States. A clear political message his performance so far has sent out is that his candidacy appeals beyond his party to independent voters. But the region-specific pattern of Republican voting preferences indicated by the victories of Mitt Romney in the Rocky Mountain west States and Baptist pastor Michael Huckabee in the Bible-belt southern States will worry party strategists. Can there be any doubt that social conservatives who form such an important part of the Grand Old Party’s mass base and who split their support between Mr. Romney and Mr. Huckabee are turning away from Mr. McCain? At this point, despite every indication that the Democratic contest will go down to the wire, it looks like McCain vs Clinton. Super Tuesday may have just about persuaded the Democratic party establishment and faithful that although Mr. Obama has momentum, funding, and appeal, especially to younger voters, Ms Clinton has a better chance of getting to the White House.

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