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The force is with Obama

While the marathon race between Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton to win the Democratic Party’s nomination for the 2008 presidential election continues to be neck-and-neck in the delegate count, he has certainly gained momentum after the latest run of caucuses and primaries. At the end of the 22-State battle of Super Tuesday, Ms Clinton had a lead of just fewer than 100 among those elected to participate in the party convention. Mr. Obama moved ahead in the tal ly of pledged delegates by winning — with big margins — an unbroken series of eight nominating contests held after February 5. This gives him a psychological advantage. There appears to be little chance that Ms Clinton will be able to regain the lead on February 19, when Democrats in Wisconsin and Hawaii exercise their choice. The latest round of primaries, held on February 12, threw up some worrying trends for the Senator from New York. First, the outcome marked a break from the emerging pattern in which primaries have mostly proved favourable to Ms Clinton while caucuses have largely given Mr. Obama the advantage. Secondly, in Virginia and Maryland, Mr. Obama has won a sizable share of the votes of women and low-income whites, constituencies that overwhelmingly backed her in earlier rounds.

In fact, for Ms Clinton it is uphill all the way from here. Her campaign is likely to become unviable if she does not win big in the Ohio and Texas primaries on March 4. The configurations in these two large States are reported to be favourable and surveys of public opinion still give her the lead. However, whatever happens on M-Day, she will be well short of the 2025 delegates needed to clinch the nomination. Her chances lie in staying close to Mr. Obama in the competition for the support of pledged delegates up to the end of the nomination season, in the hope that most of the 796 super-delegates will eventually swing towards her. According to guesstimates, fewer than half of the party bigwigs are committed to either side. Ms Clinton was thought to have an edge among ‘super-delegates’ (who can vote as they please) but that can change under the pressure of who has more democratically pledged delegates. Mr. Obama has put forward a strong and convincing argument that the Democratic establishment should follow grass-roots support. His charisma and message of change are attracting big support, shattering traditional barriers, and his consistency on key issues certainly contrasts with his opponent’s opportunism. The Obama campaign is in full flow and, at this juncture, he has every chance of making history.

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