Opinion - News Analysis   

Obama vs McCain: who would be the winner?

Suzanne Goldenberg &

Ewen MacAskill

— PHOTO: AP

John McCain (right) is old enough to be Barack Obama’s father but, says an expert, his age could help him.

Neither man has yet to secure his party’s nomination but Barack Obama and John McCain have begun to lay down the battle lines for a possible confrontation in November’s presidential election.

Mr. McCain, all but certain to lead the Republican ticket, is starting to plot election strategy, aides say, and the Senator from Arizona has made it clear he intends to fight Mr. Obama’s main premise of his candidacy head-on. “I do not se ek the presidency on the presumption that I am blessed with such personal greatness that history has anointed me to save my country in its hour of need,” Mr. McCain said on Tuesday.

The Obama camp, meanwhile, has begun to mock Mr. McCain’s main election vehicle: the Straight Talk Express, accusing the Republican of cleaving to the party line. “It looks like the wheels on the Straight Talk Express came off somewhere along the road to the Republican nomination,” an Obama spokesman, Bill Burton, said.

At 71, Mr. McCain truly is old enough to be Mr. Obama’s father. The Senator from Illinois is 46. That might look like an obvious advantage to Mr. Obama in an election year dominated by talk of change. But Michael McDonald, an election specialist at George Mason University, cautions that Mr. McCain’s age could help him. Older people are more reliable voters and people often vote for people like themselves.

Race could also be a factor in the campaign. “When you look at the primaries, in places like Alabama, Obama has won it with only a few whites crossing over — about 10 per cent to 20 per cent. He does better where whites are better educated, in places like Atlanta,” Mr. McDonald said.

However, Stephen Hess of the Brookings Institution, suggests that the demand for change by the electorate could trump demographic considerations.

Mr. Obama’s ability to energise voters is undeniable. On the campaign trail, his rallies have packed out sports stadiums, and primaries and caucuses across America have seen record turnouts in all age groups and demographics.

Mr. McCain, in contrast, has been a divisive figure within the Republican party because of his opposition to torture at Guantanamo, his advocacy for new immigration laws and campaign finance reform, and his wavering stand on tax cuts. He has had trouble winning over social conservatives.

That may ease. In recent days, Mr. McCain has been endorsed by a number of conservative figures. But Mr. Obama, for now, appears to have the edge. “There is still a sense that Obama has this charismatic movement behind him and McCain doesn’t have that much charisma,” said Frederic Solop, director of the Social Research Laboratory at Northern Arizona University.

Mr. Obama has been winning over independent voters and even Republicans — or “Obamacans” as he calls them — in primary contests. Mr. McCain also appeals to independent voters because of his reputation as a maverick. But Mr. Obama is still tied down in the fight for the Democratic nomination. Mr. McCain, having virtually secured the nomination, can now focus on winning over centrist voters.

“Obama has to redefine himself in the general election,” Mr. Solop said. “John McCain has the advantage going to the general election because he has a more moderate voice and is speaking more to the mainstream than Barack Obama.”

An election fought on the economy would favour Mr. Obama. But what if an unforeseen event shifts America’s political conversation — now focussed on fears of a recession — to national security?

Republican operatives are already trying to frame the elections in terms of national security. That would help Mr. McCain. His life experiences would fit well in an election fought on national security. He spent five years as a prisoner in Hanoi after being shot down in the Vietnam war. In Congress, he is the ranking Republican member of the Senate armed services committee. Mr. Obama has not served in the military and has no proven national security credentials.

Or as Nathan Sproul, a Republican strategist from Arizona argues, Mr. Obama’s message of hope and change will not play well if Americans feel their lives are in danger.

Printer friendly page  
Send this article to Friends by E-Mail

Stories in this Section

Manoeuvring for advantage
The return of realism?
India must return to Eurasian energy game
When readers need an independent assessment
Dos and don’ts for schools in China
Pakistan: more of the same?
Obama vs McCain: who would be the winner?
Fuel price hike
Shameful attitude
R2P
Education Bill
Valentine’s Day

Copyright © 2008, The Hindu. Republication or redissemination of the contents of this screen are expressly prohibited without the written consent of The Hindu