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Balkan shadow

Kosovo’s unilateral declaration of independence has thrown the fragile Balkan peace into question again and caused much disquiet elsewhere in the world. The reactions of other states will be crucial. U.S. President George W Bush, with his characteristic grasp of international affairs, initially said: “The Kosovoans are now independent”; that did not amount to full recognition, although it was sufficient for Serbia, the state of which Kosovo is a province, to withdraw its ambassador from Washington — which has since recognised Kosovo. Russia, for its part, is very angry and will resist Kosovan accession to the United Nations. The European Union, the world’s most powerful trading bloc and a rather ineffectual player in international affairs, has decided to leave recognition to individual member states, though a 2000-strong EU mission of police, judges, and administrators is to replace the U.N. presence in Kosovo. Germany, France, the United Kingdom, and Italy have recognised the seceder, with others due to follow suit, while many of the smaller EU states oppose recognition. This UDI poses, at the very least, awkward questions in international law. Kosovo, under U.N. Security Council Resolution 1244 of 1999, is an international protectorate within a sovereign state, namely Serbia, and the UDI has been made without formal U.N. authorisation. India’s Ministry of External Affairs has issued a statement correctly noting that as Kosovo does not meet all three conditions for recognition, namely “a defined territory, a duly constituted government in charge which is accepted by the people, and which has effective control over an area of governance,” India is not offering recognition and would prefer the issue to be “resolved through peaceful means and through consultation and dialogue.”

Beneath the various diplomatic utterances, there is real cause for concern. Even in the Kosovan assembly, the 11 Kosovan Serb and other ethnic-minority members boycotted Monday’s vote, and, if Prime Minister Hashim Thaci’s promise of strong protection for ethnic minorities is not fully honoured, it is likely that the ancient ethnic and other hatreds will again cause ethnic cleansing, war, or even worse. The implications for various multi-ethnic countries are serious. A successful and internationally supported Kosovan UDI will be seen as a precedent by secessionist and separatist movements from Spain to China, and anxiously watched by various governments, including in India, Sri Lanka, and Pakistan. If the U.N. presence in Kosovo was what prevented more Serbian repression, the EU presence could well be tested to the limit.

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