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Election 2009: Congress tortoise and BJP hare

The new constituency boundaries fixed by the Delimitation Commission have without intending to do so liberated the Congress — and its rivals — from the phantom of mid-term polls. The eight or so months the Election Commission of India (ECI) will need to graft the changes on to the Lok Sabha map, in effect, mean eight or so months without the big election.

So how will the political parties use the reprieve? On current form, the Congress should sink into further inaction. Even without the mid-term threat, the farthest approximate date of the 15th General Election is April-May 2009 — just over a year away. But so far the Congress has betrayed none of the get-up-and-go visible in its rivals. Instead, there is about it a sense of resignation — as if to an approaching defeat — that is so much at odds with its status as a ruling party with some achievements to its credit.

Consider the three political formations as they now exist — the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance, the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance, and the yet to concretise third alternative. Of the lot, the first looks a loser already and the second a winner already. The third appears placed midway.

In truth, all three are shaky, and have much to thank the ECI for. The Congress has a theoretically stable alliance but is so fuzzy about everything — its programme, its vision, its leader, its achievements, and the state of its alliance — that it will surprise no one should the winner of 2004 transmogrify into the loser of 2009. The BJP’s dazzle and show hide the fact that it leads a rump alliance. The third alternative’s possible partners are all very important and high-profile but how, when, and with what common programme Mulayam Singh-Amar Singh, Chandrababu Naidu, Om Prakash Chautala and the Left Parties will unite is hard to tell.

The BJP, always first into action, and always first with propaganda, has leapt ahead of the competition with some deft footwork. The party revels in the breathless look — meet the President, meet the Chief Election Commissioner, issue statements, announce yatras, unveil portraits, plan strategy sessions, hold party meetings, hold NDA meetings; no one knows better than its peripatetic leaders how to cram the day with activity.

The BJP and the Congress must have opposite DNA codes. The Congress can barely wake up. The BJP is full of beans. When the latter was just out of power and grieving, it plunged heartily into factional fights. Now it is as heartily into cosy togetherness. Indeed, through the time the Congress has been in power, it is the BJP that has hogged the headlines — first for its many troubles, and lately for the resolve with which it has fixed the troubles.

Today the party that fought endlessly has a prime ministerial candidate behind whom the cadre stands in apparent solidarity; its leadership is gung-ho from winning Gujarat, and the RSS, so disengaged until recently, is back in its pivotal role as moral guardian. Together the package is of a party driven, united and focussed on the 2009 big fight. The new zeal had L.K. Advani asserting that his party would inflict upon the Congress its “worst defeat in history.”

All very impressive but a lot of the buzz is premature, self-created and very BJP-like. About a month ago, the BJP spearheaded a meeting of the NDA, which was lead television and print news. And for good reason: The NDA constituents, overcoming their earlier reservations, had unanimously backed Mr. Advani for Prime Minister. The problem was with the accompanying visuals. The NDA that posed with Mr. Advani seemed a sadly emaciated version of the NDA that captured over 300 seats in the 1999 Lok Sabha election.

Only three alliance partners could be spotted in the picture: the Akali Dal’s Parkash Singh Badal, the Biju Janata Dal’s Naveen Patnaik and the Janata Dal (United)’s Nitish Kumar. Some allies, like the Shiv Sena, were possibly out of the frame but still in the alliance. Even so, this was a vastly depleted stock compared to the NDA-1999’s magnificent 23-party peak. Not that this little matter stopped its beaming spokespersons. They claimed the presence at the meet of “all our allies except Mamata Banerjee” and got away with it, too, judging by the gushy media coverage of the event.

Since 2002, it has been a virtual exodus from the NDA: Among those that have deserted the BJP: the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference; the Indian National Lok Dal; the Lok Jan Shakti Party, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam and its State allies, the Rashtriya Lok Dal, the Himachal Vikas Congress and the Indian Federal Democratic Party. The Telugu Desam Party, the NDA’s outside prop, has sworn off while the Trinamool Congress seems on the verge of quitting the alliance. All this not counting the many one-man State parties that habitually align with the ruling side.

The Congress has had its share of alliance problems. The Telangana Rashtra Samiti and the Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam have exited the UPA. The Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party, which at one time lined up behind the Congress, are as good as not there thanks to the Congress’ constant flip-flop between the two parties.

Of the rest, the Rashtriya Janata Dal, the Lok Jan Shakti Party and the DMK won the maximum they could in 2004 (DMK alliance 25 of 25 contested seats, and the RJD-LJP alliance 26 of 34 contested seats). The Nationalist Congress Party is unlikely to be able to repeat its 22-seat tally. Besides, it can just about tolerate its senior partner. The People’s Democratic Party and the Congress are in an equally loveless relationship.

What this adds up to is a delicate coalition held together more by the glue of power than by chemistry and a sense of common purpose. The constituents, with their history of broken commitments and relationships, can head in any direction come 2009. What should the Congress have done? What can it still do?

Many things. First, ensure that the partners have a stake in staying the course. Second, dispel the confusion on the prime ministerial question. The opposition needs to declare its prime ministerial candidate, not the ruling party. A ruling party that changes its leader without evident compulsions calls attention to its incapacity. When that possible new leader is a young and untested member of the dynasty it also calls attention to the party’s bankruptcy. Third, hit the streets, go to town on your achievements, rejig the party apparatus, send the best there is to the States, and do so unitedly and cohesively.

But look at the Congress’ record. The UPA has put in place three legislation acclaimed as historic — the National Rural Employment Guarantee Act, the Right to Information Act and The Scheduled Tribes and Other Traditional Forest Dwellers (Recognition of Forest Rights) Act. Each is in force defying internal sabotage. The ownership of NREGA has moved from the Congress to the opposition. On the foreign policy front, the civil nuclear deal with the United States was a coup of sorts that the Congress disowned before the Left parties.

In 2004, Sonia Gandhi stitched up an alliance that went on to win. Today, the Congress cannot spring that surprise. As the ruling party, it must defend its record in its office. Instead it is mired in confusion over whether or not to push Rahul Gandhi. Indira Gandhi earned her spurs. Sonia Gandhi has proven her worth. Rahul Gandhi cannot talk meritocracy and rely on aristocracy.

This is where the BJP comes in. The BJP suffered a stunning defeat in May 2004, watched the NDA crumble, and has today virtually to start from scratch. Yet its motivation seems the greater for the challenge. In the last month, it has re-engaged with AIADMK leader J. Jayalalithaa. A core team is also prospecting for other allies. The road is far from easy. Parties such as the TDP, the LJSP and the Trinamool Congress need the Muslim vote more than they need the Hindutva party. If the BJP fails, it will not be for want of trying.

The Congress will likely remember 2004 when the BJP’s shrill propaganda led it to a crushing defeat. The Congress was the tortoise to the BJP’s hare. But even the slow and steady tortoise must have a strategy or fail to win the race.

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