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Loss of dynamism in agriculture

Gargi Parsai

Economic Survey calls for “second green revolution”

Production of foodgrains is expected to be short of target

Strengthen farm insurance scheme for wider coverage

NEW DELHI: Pointing to the “loss of dynamism” in agriculture and allied sectors, the 2007-08 Economic Survey calls for a “second green revolution,” particularly in rainfed areas, to rejuvenate the sector and improve the income of those dependent on it. “Any deceleration in the growth of this sector is translated into a lower overall Gross Domestic Product growth.”

“The share of agriculture in the GDP registered a steady decline from 36.4 per cent in 1982-83 to 18.5 per cent in 2006-07. Yet this sector continues to support more than a billion people providing employment to 52 per cent of the workforce,” notes the survey.

The agriculture, forestry and fishing sector is estimated to grow at 2.6 per cent during 2007-08 against the previous year’s growth of 3.8 per cent. Apart from weather fluctuations, output has been affected on account of reduced capital investment and plateauing out of yield in major crops. The target growth rate for the farm sector is four per cent.

In 2007-08, the overall production of foodgrains is expected to be short of the target by 2.2 million tonnes though 10.1 million tonnes higher than the second estimates for 2006-07. Kharif output is expected to be 5.3 million tonnes in 2006-07 while rabi production is expected to be lower by 3.3 million tonnes.

Broadly, the survey points out, there was a shortfall in the target of production of foodgrains, pulses and oilseeds from 2000-01 to 2006-07. The production of foodgrains was 93 per cent of the target. During the period, the actual output of pulses on average was 87.7 per cent of target and of oilseeds, 85.3 per cent. Production of sugarcane and cotton, however, exceeded targets.

Expressing concern over the low growth of agriculture compared to non-farm sectors, the survey says the gap has begun widening since 1981-82 and more particularly since 1996-97, due to the acceleration in the growth of the industry and services sector.

Between 1950-51 and 2006-07, production of foodgrains increased at an annual rate of 2.5 per cent compared to the population growth rate, which averaged at 2.1 per cent, as a result of which India was self-sufficient in foodgrains till 2005-06. The scenario, however, changed between 1990 and 2007 when the rate of growth of foodgrains production fell to 1.2 per cent, which was lower than the average population growth rate of 1.9 per cent.

During the period, the per capita consumption of cereals declined from peak 468 gm per day in 1990-91 to 412 gm in 2005-06. The consumption of pulses declined from 42 to 33 gm.

There has been a “considerable decline” in the rate of growth of area, production, productivity and the area irrigated for major crops.

The area under production of foodgrains over 16 years witnessed an average annual decline of 0.26 per cent during the period from 1989-90 to 2005-06, largely because of a shift from coarse grains. At the same time, there has been a continuous decline in the rate of creation in irrigation potential, adding to the deceleration in farm growth.

New schemes

The government has recently launched the Rashtriya Krishi Vikas Yojana, which gives flexibility to States to evolve their own schemes provided they invest in the sector. A National Food Security Mission has been introduced to enhance the production of wheat, rice and pulses. The National Agriculture Insurance Scheme and the pilot weather-based insurance programme must be strengthened for wider coverage, says the survey.

“Acceleration of growth in this sector will not only push the overall GDP upwards, it would also make the growth more inclusive and biased in favour of women. Increasing farm incomes is also necessary for equitable growth.”

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