Opinion - News Analysis   

India and a new U.S. game in East Asia

A familiar political mantra, now placed in the aerospace context, was articulated at the latest ’Singapore Airshow.’ The mantra is that China and India are of pivotal importance to the future of East Asia and the eventual formation of a post-Cold-War global order in the political and economic domains.

Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong cited these two countries as the new powerhouses in the aerospace industry, which, in his view, might benefit, at a different level, from the ongoing “modernisation” of the defence sectors in a number of Asian countries. He did not specifically allude to the parallel but independent military modernisation drives in both India and China, but the totality of his message was unambiguous.

On the sidelines of the ‘Airshow,’ Indian Air Force Chief Air Chief Marshal F. H. Major told this correspondent that the IAF was now “conceptualising and developing plans” for a satellite-based “eyes in the skies” project. The plan, envisioned as “no [cover for] weaponising space,” was being designed to improve India’s “strategic reach and capabilities.”

The project, he clarified, was thought of even before China carried out an anti-satellite test last year and drew a quick comment from the United States that Beijing’s new feat was comparable in its political impact to the Soviet Union’s launch of ‘Sputnik’ in the 1950s.

The U.S. sees these developments, relating to Beijing and New Delhi, in the context of a new theory that successful space-faring pioneers will dominate the future global order in both military and non-military spheres just as proactive maritime powers did in the past.

And unsurprisingly, U.S. Defence Secretary Robert Gates, who travelled to New Delhi after visiting Australia and Indonesia in February, offered to “cooperate” with India in building its missile defences. For now, the two sides would focus attention on carrying out “a joint analysis” of India’s needs in this space-related theatre. However, Washington’s growing defence equation with New Delhi would not be directed against Beijing, he maintained.

In fact, the U.S., now keen on a new grand game in East Asia, will have to rely on China’s support for this project, which Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice broadly outlined during her visit to Tokyo in late-February.

The new U.S. game, outlined by Ms. Rice as the simple “institutionalisation” of the ongoing six-party process that deals with the denuclearisation of Korean peninsula, is really designed to rival the existing Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO).

Authoritative Chinese sources have told this correspondent that Beijing tends to look upon the SCO as a forum that might help fashion Asia’s long-term political and economic order. Significantly, the U.S., which prides itself on its prolonged “forward presence” in East Asia and the Australasian sector, is not in the SCO, which is primarily a China-Russia project that also covers the Central Asian Republics as core participants. India, Pakistan, and Iran are the SCO observers. Given this configuration, the U.S. will not be able to set any SCO agenda for the long-term future of Asia.

On the other side of the East Asian spectrum, the six parties, still braving it out for a diplomatic resolution of the issues relating to North Korea’s nuclear arms proliferation, are the U.S., China as the proactive host, the two Koreas, Japan, and Russia.

It requires no great insight, therefore, to see that the six-party process, if “institutionalised” into a new forum, would help the U.S. co-opt both the now-rising China and the ‘resurging Russia’ for sorting out issues concerning Northeast Asia.

This sub-region of Asia, which borders on Russia and covers China as also Japan and the two Koreas, is still hostage to historical animosities that have been aggravated by the Second World War and the subsequent Cold War.

While making the political pitch for a new forum, which could resemble a house of several people looking over each other’s shoulders, Ms. Rice took care to affirm Washington’s preferences for sustaining its parallel military alliances with Japan and South Korea.

It is, of course, a paradox that the widespread anti-U.S. sentiments among the people of both Japan and South Korea have not so far undermined the ‘logic’ of these government-to-government accords. So, she profusely apologised for the excesses of Japan-based American troops, especially instances of rape; and, she had no second thoughts about the U.S. intention to “modernise” these old military pacts.

As for their relevance to the changing U.S.-China equation, scholars like G. John Ikenberry and others believe that “the nuclear [arms] revolution ... has made war among great powers unlikely.” This, in their reckoning, has now deprived China of “the major tool” to try and dismantle the existing “Western-oriented world order” led by the U.S. Yet, on March 4, the Pentagon once again expressed “concern” over China’s ongoing military “modernisation” in an ambience of little or no “transparency.” It is obvious, therefore, that the U.S. wants to eat the cake of hegemony and have it.

It is in this context that Mr. Gates, during his tours in late-February, tried to humour Australia, a long-time U.S. ally which is now under independent-minded Kevin Rudd, and Indonesia, the third-largest democracy with “a military reform agenda,” besides India. Canberra, despite its resolute move of pulling out its combat troops from Iraq, reaffirmed the longer-term relevance of the U.S. to Australia. And, Mr. Gates said he “encountered only enthusiasm in all of the ... like-minded ... [Indian] leaders” he met in New Delhi.

The original Japanese idea of a forum of four Asia-Pacific democracies - the U.S., India, Japan, and Australia — has not taken off; but Washington has chosen to proactively engage New Delhi even while thinking of a new grand game elsewhere in Greater East Asia.

Printer friendly page  
Send this article to Friends by E-Mail

Stories in this Section

Bravo but beware triumphalism
Hillary rebounds
Putting the executive in its place
Farm loan waiver: a closer look and critique
Corrections and clarifications
A prince goes to war — and how
India and a new U.S. game in East Asia
Nuclear deal
A beginning
Congratulations

Copyright © 2008, The Hindu. Republication or redissemination of the contents of this screen are expressly prohibited without the written consent of The Hindu