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Sharp rebuke for Sarkozy

The recent French local elections, covering 37,000 towns and villages and one half of the district or canton seats in France’s provinces, are an overall and solid success for the Socialist Party (PS). They are also a sharp warning to the conservative President Nicolas Sarkozy, the UMP (Union for a Popular Movement) leader. Mr. Sarkozy’s flashy style, reminiscent of Tony Blair’s, has often masked a substance also close to Blair’s, for example in the matter of spurious consultations before decisions already taken to cut public services and facilities are implemented; public services and institutions are taken very seriously by the French electorate. The very public turbulence in Mr. Sarkozy’s personal life has also diminished his standing. Mr. Sarkozy has even been seen as a liability by his own party candidates, some of whom requested him to stay away from their campaigns. The message for Mr. Sarkozy is even more serious as it comes at a time the going is good, with unemployment at its lowest level in 20 years, though voters were worried about prices and inflation.

The wider political picture of the poll outcome, however, is more complex. The UMP, which generally held the smaller cities, could only just hold the Mediterranean port of Marseille against the Socialists and thereby avoid outright humiliation, despite the fact that its voters did not defect to the far-right Front National. Secondly, the turnout for the first round was just under 67 per cent and for the second round it was approximately 54 per cent, a very low figure by French standards. Thirdly, although the French Left generally are looking stronger and more capable at the local level than they have done for a long time — the Communist Party confounded predictions of its disappearance by holding several cities — the PS at national level still lacks direction, a possible consequence of three successive defeats in presidential elections. The party will of course be pleased that the centrist MoDem party had little appeal, with its leader François Bayrou even losing in his own constituency, Pau, and it can make good use of the recent results in a longer-term move on the presidency — it won the 1977 local elections heavily, won the presidency in 1981, and held that in 1988. The Left’s key figure henceforth will probably be the Paris mayor, Bertrand Delanoë, who held the city with a huge majority and is emerging as a potential national leader. All considered, the French Left have become much stronger and have all to play for.

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