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Trouble in Basra

The Iraqi security forces, raised and trained by the United States in the post-Ba’ath period, appear to be failing in their first major mission. A three day-assault by these forces on the Mahdi army, the militant followers of the firebrand cleric Moqtada al Sadr, has stalled, with civilians constituting most of the 100-plus killed in the fighting. In Basra, the city where the offensive operations were mainly conducted, the army used armoured personnel carriers but wa s unable to penetrate the militia’s strongholds. In under-performing to such an extent, the Iraqi troops have belied the claim made by President George W. Bush that they were becoming increasingly capable of enforcing security. There have been reports of mass defections from the 16,000-strong police contingent that makes up the greater part of an attacking force of 30,000. If this trend continues as it well might, the Baghdad regime’s security apparatus could unravel. The Mahdi army has so far fought only defensive battles in places where it has been under assault. Mr. al Sadr has asked his followers elsewhere to launch a civil disobedience campaign. However, a militia that has waged two major campaigns against the occupation troops might throw off all restraint. As it is, the Mahdi army has been practically forced to break the truce it has observed since August 2007. If this Shia militia trains its guns on the occupation forces, the largely Sunni-led insurgency could flare up in tandem. There have been indications that the insurgency, which seemed to be on the wane towards the end of 2007, was reviving over the last month, with several attacks on U.S. troops and the highly protected Green Zone in Baghdad.

While the U.S. is hostile to the Mahdi army, Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki appears to have embarked upon the latest operations without any external instigation. Mr. Maliki has claimed that the military action was directed at criminal elements in Basra. However, from the manner in which the operations have been carried out, it is evident that they are intended to secure certain political objectives as well. The other Shia political formations in Iraq, including Mr. Maliki’s Dawa party, have long been jealous of the hold Mr. al Sadr has had over the underprivileged sections of the community. The Mahdi army has every reason to believe that the current operations are aimed at crushing it before the provincial elections, scheduled to be held in October. Mr. Maliki appears to have incorrectly assessed the capabilities of his forces and the backlash is turning out to be stronger than he can handle.

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