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No room in NATO for Georgia, Ukraine now

BUCHAREST: By scuttling the NATO membership bids of two of Russia’s Westward-looking neighbours, President Vladimir Putin won what is arguably his biggest diplomatic victory even before he arrived at an alliance summit.

NATO’s plan to expand into former Soviet turf collapsed on Thursday when leaders — anxious to avoid angering Moscow — opted not to put the strategically important ex-Soviet nations of Ukraine and Georgia on track for membership.

Mr. Putin had warned the military alliance against moving to bring Ukraine and Georgia aboard. He even threatened that Russia could point its nuclear missiles at Ukraine if it joined NATO and hosted part of a U.S. missile defence system.

Mr. Putin has succeeded in driving a wedge in the alliance. The U.S., Canada, and Central and Eastern European nations strongly backed the bids of Ukraine and Georgia. But Germany, France and some others resisted it, fearing that the move would damage ties with Russia, a key energy supplier to the continent.

NATO pledged on Thursday to embrace Ukraine and Georgia some day, but the failure to grant them a specific road map was a major foreign policy success for Mr. Putin just over a month before he steps down as President.

Russia has been unable to prevent Western recognition of Kosovo independence or block U.S. missile defence plans. The collapse of NATO’s expansion plan marks the first time since the Soviet collapse when Russia actually got the upper hand in a dispute with the West. “Clearly Putin is victorious,” said Sergei Karaganov, a Russian political analyst with close ties to the Kremlin. “He has changed the tone of relations between Russia and the West.”

Konstantin Kosachev, the head of foreign affairs committee at the lower house of Russian parliament, said NATO’s failure to grant membership action plans to Ukraine and Georgia showed Germany, France and some others bear a “responsible attitude.”

For the expansion plan to succeed, all 26 bloc members must approve. Strong support from U.S. President George W. Bush, who stopped in Ukraine on his way to Bucharest, failed to persuade the reluctant NATO members to drop their objections.

“It was a victory for those who didn’t want destabilisation in Europe, and it was a defeat for those outside of Europe who were seeking to destabilise it,” Mr. Karaganov said.

Looking upset, Ukraine’s President Viktor Yushchenko said on Thursday that his nation’s membership bid was a test for the alliance. He tried to put a brave face to the defeat, declaring: “I’m convinced that Ukraine will be in NATO.” Andriy Parubiy, a lawmaker from Mr. Yushchenko’s faction in parliament, criticised Germany and France. “Their decision was based on economic blackmail by Russia,” he said.

Georgia’s U.S.-allied President Mikhail Saakashvili warned that snubbing his nation would be a “bad sign.” “It would not help our reform process,” he said in an interview published in the German daily Handelsblatt. “But either way, we will stick to the Atlantic perspective.”

Mr. Putin will dine with NATO leaders and summit guests on Thursday evening, and is set to attend a meeting of the Russia-NATO Council on Friday. But the Russian leader will not be able to use the occasion to celebrate his victory. His speech at the meeting will be out of the public eye in line with the meeting’s ground rules: Russia is a member of the council and Mr. Putin is not entitled to any special privileges.

Russia’s envoy to NATO, Dmitry Rogozin, protested the restrictions, saying the alliance’s refusal to give Mr. Putin a chance to speak publicly was an attempt to stifle Russia’s voice.

Russia and NATO signed a partnership agreement in 2002 envisaging cooperation in combating terrorism, curbing proliferation of mass destruction weapons and other issues. But Russia’s ties with the West worsened quickly after amid numerous disputes, and Mr. Putin grew increasingly critical of NATO.

Russia has strongly opposed U.S. plans to deploy missile defence sites in Poland and the Czech Republic. Last year, it suspended its participation in a key Cold War-era arms control treaty limiting the deployment of conventional weapons on the continent.

NATO’s plans to incorporate Ukraine and Georgia have been by far the strongest irritant for Moscow. Now that NATO has shelved accession plans for Georgia and Ukraine, a happy Russia may offer the alliance some favours in return. The Kremlin has been negotiating with NATO on the transit of supplies for its mission in Afghanistan through Russian territory, and a deal could be reached on Friday. — AP

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