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A good beginning in Pakistan

The winds of change are sweeping through the avenues of Islamabad, or are they? From the very first meeting of the new National Assembly, it was obvious that Pakistan had undergone a radical transformation in many ways. The absence of burqas and hijabs in the lower house — the most visible consequence yet of the defeat of the religious parties in the February 18 election — was the least of it.

“Finally we have a people’s parliament,” is the most repeated statement — after the one about “winds of change” — since Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gillani’s election. When visitors packed in the galleries of the National Assembly ignored Speaker Fahmida Mirza’s directives and shouted “Go Musharraf Go” and “zinda hai bibi, zinda hai (Benazir is alive),” a television journalist gushed that it felt “like the revolution has arrived.”

When opposition parties joined the coalition partners to give a unanimous vote of confidence to Mr. Gillani in the National Assembly, only the springtime pollen count was higher than the euphoria over Islamabad. And when the Pakistan People’s Party-led coalition government took office, the talk was all about “rule by national consensus,” “people’s government” and the “supremacy of Parliament.”

Under the defeated Pakistan Muslim League (Q) regime, the National Assembly was seen as a place where the government announced decisions that had been taken by President Pervez Musharraf. But the new government has pledged that its authority will flow only from the people’s representatives elected in a popular vote.

From the fate of President Musharraf to that of deposed Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry, from the future of Pakistan’s role in the U.S.-led “war on terror” to its Kashmir policy, the coalition leaders have declared that everything is now in the hands of the new Parliament. The parliamentarians, especially the new ones who number a record 192 in the 342-seat lower house, sincerely believe this, and the feeling of empowerment among them is palpable.

“The last Parliament was a rubber-stamp Parliament. They [the representatives] were just sitting here doing nothing and all the policies were coming from the presidency. But this Parliament will set the direction for all others to follow,” said Muhammad Baligh-ur-Rahman, a first-time parliamentarian of the Pakistan Muslim League (N) from Bhawalpur in southern Punjab.

Nawaz Sharif, leader of the PML(N), the PPP’s strongest coalition partner, has already declared that the Pakistan government’s anti-terrorism policies will be re-examined by a parliamentary committee that will make recommendations that will then come before the house for discussion.

In the coming weeks, the National Assembly promises to be an arena of action, and possibly a stage for a confrontation with the retired General Musharraf. The coalition partners have pledged to pass a resolution demanding the restoration of the judges sacked by him when he imposed the emergency rule last November. They have also promised to make Parliament “sovereign” by passing amendments to the Constitution to end the President’s powers to sack the government and dissolve the house.

“At the end of the day, it is the party leadership that will be making most of the decisions,” said former senator and columnist Shafqat Mahmood, referring to Asif Ali Zardari and to a lesser extent Nawaz Sharif, who are not in Parliament and are not members of the new government but will clearly govern by proxy. “But there will be much greater debate on issues and on some important matters, you may also see Parliament weighing in heavily.”

Outlining the new government’s policy for the first 100 days on the floor of the house, Mr. Gillani promised that the committee system in Parliament would be strengthened, and that “as in all other democracies,” the National Assembly too would have Prime Minister’s Question Hour.

Political scientists see these as auguring well for democracy in Pakistan. “The best way to institutionalise democracy is to use Parliament as a forum, and to make it a centre of strategic decision-making,” said Rasul Baksh Rais, who teaches political science at the Lahore University of Management Sciences.

Commentators are also congratulating Mr. Zardari for building a virtual brotherhood of allies, by reaching out not just to Mr. Sharif and the Awami National Party, but also bringing into the coalition Maulana Fazlur Rehman of the Jamiat-e-Ulema Islam and the Muttahida Qaumi Movement, the party of Urdu-speaking urban Sindh regarded with ethnic revulsion by both Sindhis and Punjabis. The expanding coalition brings Pakistan the closest it has come to having a national government.

“This is a radically different political situation than we had in the last 40 years. There is a process of consultation within the parties as we saw during the PPP’s selection of a Prime Minister, in deference to the coalition of interests within each party. And there has to be a process of consultation between parties. So far we have seen remarkable flexibility, and give and take,” Dr. Rais said.

Thus far, it has been a bit like watching a Bollywood flick — two big families, and several smaller ones, propelled by a tragedy into coming together in a grand wedding, putting away generations of enmity while the true villain stands exposed and trounced. But while Bollywood would sign off at this point with The End, Pakistan is only half-way through the script. For strong reasons, the audience — Pakistanis and all the so-called stakeholders — anticipates that after a brief intermission, the marriage could unravel, heroes could yet turn into villains, the villains last seen gnashing their teeth in a cave will turn into heroes and, in the end, the winds of change will prove deceptive.

Key appointments in the new government have given rise to an early sense of déjÀ vu. Four persons who left the country under a cloud following the institution of corruption charges against them in the Sharif era have been rehabilitated in top positions. Three were favoured bureaucrats in Benazir’s government.

One of the bureaucrats has been appointed Principal Secretary to the Prime Minister, while another is an ambassador-at-large. The third, Rehman Malik, former Federal Investigation Authority boss, has been appointed the de facto Interior Minister. A fourth important appointment is that of Hussain Haqqani as Special Advisor to the Prime Minister on Foreign Affairs. A professor at Boston University and director of its Center for International Relations, Mr. Haqqani is queued for ambassadorship to Washington. His appointment has raised both eyebrows and hackles on account of his shifting political loyalties over the years. But he played a role as a bridge between Benazir and the U.S. State department, where he is well networked, and Mr. Zardari clearly sees him as an asset despite the murmurs against him within the party.

The PPP co-chairman has stoutly defended all the appointments, saying in an interview that these men had suffered for their loyalty, and that this needed to be acknowledged. “If the intention was to start with an absolutely clean slate, these appointments could have been avoided. But obviously, the compulsions of loyalty are more important,” Mr. Mahmood, former senator, said.

The more immediate fear is that the coalition partners are not all together on crucial issues. Despite the Murree Declaration, by which the PPP and the PML(N) jointly pledged to restore the judges by way of a resolution in the National Assembly within 30 days of taking office, it is evident that not all the coalition parties, including the two signatories to the agreement, think exactly alike on the issue of the judiciary. Some cracks have started showing on this.

Mr. Sharif is vehement there will be no compromise on the reinstatement of the judges, while Mr. Zardari talks of a package of “judicial reforms,” in which, according to reports, the reinstatement of each judge is to be scrutinised by a parliamentary committee. Aitzaz Ahsan, the lawyer and PPP leader at the forefront of the agitation to have the judges reinstated, has alleged an elaborate game of smoke-and mirrors hatched in the presidency — by implication, with the co-operation of sections of his own party — not to reinstate the sacked Chief Justice.

Nor is the ruling alliance of one mind on President Musharraf. The black arm-band protest by PML(N) Ministers during their swearing-in by Gen. Musharraf reiterated their resolve that he must go, one way or the other. The PPP does not agree entirely. One PPP Minister called him a “saleable commodity” who could be used by the government to attract foreign investment.

Mr. Zardari’s extension of the brotherhood to include the MQM has also created discord within sections of the PPP in Sindh that find it hard to “bhai-bhai” with an arch rival. Also unhappy is the PML(N) that wants the MQM punished for last May’s violence in Karachi when the deposed Chief Justice attempted to visit the city.

Underlying the concerns for the new government is the fear that there are forces waiting to exploit the first signs of discord between the coalition partners and the first mistakes committed by one or the other of them to send Pakistan’s latest experiment with democracy spinning out of the window.

The reason Gen. Musharraf has not yet thrown in the towel, say some cynical observers, is because he is waiting for the unnatural alliance of Asif & Bros. to fall apart. As always, the Pakistan Army is cited as the dark horse. However, Army chief Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani’s briefing on national security issues to Mr. Gillani and leaders of the parties in the ruling coalition in the Prime Minister’s House earlier this week was more cause for celebration. The Army chief going to the “people’s government,” instead of the Prime Minister going to GHQ, and seeking the support of elected representatives in the challenge Pakistan faces from Islamist militancy were seen as a good omen for democracy.

The country can only hope that the wrinkles will be ironed out and that the honeymoon will last.

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