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A patriarch’s bitter winter

The tense political drama unfolding in Zimbabwe is best captured in five words: ‘The tragedy of Robert Mugabe.’ The man who provided steely, astute leadership to the African majority in the land between the Zambezi and Limpopo rivers in the victorious struggle against a racist, pro-colonial regime has, over the past few years, transmogrified into a symbol of oppressive misgovernance. Mr. Mugabe’s Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front, which has held power since 1980 (with some changes in name and the leader’s designation) is notoriously corrupt and inefficient. A country that should have prospered post-independence has turned into a basket case. The annual rate of inflation is estimated to be 100,000 per cent; the unemployment rate is among the highest in the world; and the AIDS epidemic has slashed female life expectancy at birth to something in the 40s. Without remittances from the hundreds of thousands of Zimbabweans who have fled, mainly to other countries in southern Africa, life would be quite unbearable. A people desperate to rid themselves of a rapacious regime believed they had voted it out in the general election of March 29. Polling data from the constituencies showed that the opposition Movement for Democratic Change had won more than half the 210 seats in the lower house. The data also suggested that in the parallel presidential election, Mr. Mugabe had been defeated by the MDC’s Morgan Tsvangirai. However, with the ZANU-PF-controlled Election Commission failing to notify the results, there is widespread suspicion that it will fiddle with the figures.

A second round of voting in the presidential election appears unavoidable since independent observers are of the view that Mr. Tsvangirai has not won the 50 per cent necessary under the rules. If the second round is conducted with the relative fairness of the first, or perhaps under closer international monitoring, Mr. Mugabe’s defeat seems virtually guaranteed. But ZANU-PF does not appear to be in any mood to take its chances in a fair contest. It is reported to have launched a campaign to terrorise rural voters in the Mashona tribe’s homelands. A nasty and escalating confrontation can still be avoided if the patriarch looks back to the ideals of his prime, the anti-racist and anti-imperialist struggle he led so inspiringly. South Africa and the other countries around Zimbabwe’s rim are the only international actors who can exert some constructive pressure on the veteran. Mr. Mugabe must be persuaded to bow out with a shred of dignity rather than endure a bitter winter of alienation from his own people.

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