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Tactical compromise

The April 13 power-sharing deal between President Mwai Kibaki and his main opponent, Raila Odinga, could bring to an end the ethnic strife that has convulsed Kenya since the December 2007 election. The 94-member council of ministers constituted through this agreement comprises representatives of almost every segment of a complex demographic mosaic. The objective was to promote stability by giving a large number of politicians a stake in the system. With hundreds of thousan ds of people internally displaced and the economy in the doldrums, the restoration of order was the top priority. The trouble in Kenya had a spill-over effect in the landlocked countries that lie to the west of this Indian Ocean littoral state. These countries, especially Rwanda and Uganda, which conduct most of their international trade through Kenyan ports, faced difficulties in importing food and other essential goods. It was for these reasons that the African Union and the wider international community went out of their way to broker peace between Mr. Kibaki and his opponents. There is good reason to believe that the external actors will continue to exert pressure. If the ethnic animosities can be cooled down, internal factors could also contribute to stability over the long term, as they have done in the past. None of the Kenyan ethnic groups, not even the Kikuyus, has the numerical strength to dominate over the others.

On the negative side, the political issues that led to the outbreak of horrendous violence in this major East African country have not really been resolved. Mr. Kibaki’s opponents, who accused him of stealing the presidential election, have not withdrawn their charge even though they went along with the compromise. With Kenya’s Attorney General and the Chairman of its Electoral Commission sharing the opinion that the vote-count was not above board, the question whether Mr. Kibaki deserves to continue in the presidency remains unanswered. Mr. Odinga, who contested the presidential election, has taken the post of Prime Minister as part of the new deal. However, the distribution of portfolios has generated some bitterness since Mr. Kibaki’s supporters have been given many of the key ministries. In agreeing to share power, Kenya’s new Prime Minister appears to have made a clever tactical move. Mr. Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement is not merely the single largest party in parliament; it also has a sound organisational structure. Mr. Kibaki, on the other hand, draws support from disparate political groups. Over the long-term, the ODM might be able to change the configuration of the legislature in its favour and mount a serious challenge to the President.

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